Maxx Crosby is widely viewed as one of the most dominant pass rushers in the NFL. But one of the reasons that he isn’t viewed on the same tier as Myles Garrett or Nick Bosa is due to his raw sack total. But could this be the year that Crosby finally catches Bosa and Garrett and has a 16+ sack season?
In a recent article by Seth Walder of ESPN, he projected the sack totals for the top 50 pass rushers heading into the 2023 season. Crosby made the list, coming in at No. 9 for the highest-projected sack total.
According to Walder and his analytics team, they are projecting Crosby to finish the 2023 season with 9.1 sacks. That would be a 3.5-sack decrease from his 2022 season. Here is why they believe that his sack total could decline this year:
Crosby’s advantage is that he is projected to play more snaps (997) than anyone the model considered. This is where being a strong run defender comes into play, as he stays on the field more than other edge defenders, giving him extra opportunities to pressure quarterbacks and compile sacks.
He had a career-high 12.5 sacks last season despite being only a little above average in pass rush win rate at edge (17%). That he plays on a weaker team with a bad defense doesn’t help, but the extra snaps can cover up lower sack efficiency.
Crosby has improved in each season in the NFL, so it would be a bit surprising to see him go backward with his sack total, especially now that he’s in the prime of his career. But there is a chance that he just sees more double teams than ever before.
But if Crosby plays anywhere close to 1,000 snaps again this year, it’s hard to imagine that he won’t go over double-digit sacks in 2023. He’s just too talented of a player and his relentless motor will put him in great positions to get sacks. Somehow, someway, expect him to get 10+ sacks again this year.
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