The 2023 college football season is rapidly approaching and ESPN is previewing each conference ahead of fall camps. As most might expect, Georgia is expected to finish on top of the SEC East for a third-straight season, with Tennessee finishing as a competitive second.
There’s a big gap between the top two teams in the division and the rest of the field, though. Florida comes in third with an SP+ ranking of 14.8 (21st overall), but Kentucky is very close behind (14.5, 22nd overall) as the projected fourth-place team.
Florida’s offense is once again projected to be its strength, with a 37.4 offensive SP+ rating that’s good for the 23rd-highest coming into the season. A defensive rating of 22.6 is only the 38th-highest in Division I football, though. Only South Carolina (26.3) and Vanderbilt (32.3) are expected to be worse on defense.
As far as average wins go, ESPN sees Florida winning 6.4 games, meaning another .500 finish to the regular season is likely. Florida’s expected 3.7 conference wins are the same as Kentucky’s, so that could end up being the biggest game of the season for both teams.
ESPN staff writer Bill Connelly also tackles how long it will take Billy Napier to find success at Florida, citing a “miserable” fanbase’s growing lack of patience. A difficult schedule won’t make things easy, and Florida’s strengths might not be enough to overcome it’s deficits.
“While Georgia will be the preseason No. 1 and the Vols and Seminoles will get lots of top-10 votes, Florida will be facing what SP+ sees as the hardest schedule in the country with another transitional roster — a new starting quarterback, at least five other new offensive starters and mega turnover at linebacker and in the secondary,” Connelly wrote.
Connelly does like the tandem of Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne in the backfield for Florida. Ricky Pearsall also earned some love as Connelly’s favorite slot receiver in the division.
The big question mark is at quarterback for the Gators. Billy Napier is still deciding whether he’ll give the ball to Graham Mertz or Jack Miller III to start the season.
“Napier and offensive coordinator Rob Sale have done their best work with dual-threat quarterbacks, and Mertz … is not that. Miller might be.”
It will be tough for Billy Napier to find the kind of success fans want him to in Year 2 of the culture change. Finishing above .500 seems like a tall order, and Connelly says that there are only three “likely” wins on UF’s schedule. Everything else is a toss-up or expected loss.
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