Former Texas A&M running back Devon Achane has all the makings of becoming a certified star once he enters the NFL next season, and even though his size may scare off a number of teams in the first two rounds, whatever Franchise is lucky enough to land him is getting the steal of the 2023 NFL Draft.
On Saturday, Football Outsiders writer Nathan Forster authored a piece for ESPN detailing the top running back prospects for the upcoming draft while using the BackCAST statistical method, which projects success in the NFL based on numbers in comparison with successful pro-careers from the past. to give more background on the measurement system, Forster wrote,
“Historically, a college running back who has a good size-speed combination, has a high average yards per carry and represented a large percentage of his college team’s running attack is more likely to succeed at the NFL level. BackCAST considers these factors and projects the degree to which the running back will exceed the NFL production of an ‘average’ drafted running back during his first five years in the NFL.”
By a percentage value, the top-ranked running back in the 2023 Draft is former Texas standout Bijan Robinson, whose BackCAST is listed at 121.8%, meaning that he is projected to produce at least 121.8% more yards than what the average running back drafted will generate during their career. Now, getting back to Devon Achane who possesses incredible track speed with versatility in the passing game, but Forster isn’t completely sold on Achane’s future as a “ground a pound” 3-down back at the next level.
“Achane is rated as a late second-round pick, which is fairly consistent with where BackCAST slots him. Achane has very solid, if not spectacular numbers for workload and yards per attempt, and Achane recorded a blazing fast 4.32-second 40-yard dash at the combine. However, he weighed in at only 188 pounds, which is unusually light for a running back prospect. Indeed, there have been approximately a dozen running back prospects 188 pounds or under who were drafted in the last two decades and most were late-round prospects that never made an impact at the NFL level. In sum, like conventional wisdom, BackCAST recognizes that Achane is an intriguing talent, but that he will have to fight against some history if he wants to succeed at the NFL level.”
Time will obviously tell how things ultimately pan out for Achane in NFL, especially based on the scheme the team that drafts him employs, but instead of labeling him as an undersized returner or third down “receiving back”, let his tape from his last two seasons at A&M do the talking once he hits the field.
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