Penn State is preparing for its College Football Playoff debut this week, and the Nittany Lions remain a pretty decent favorite at home against SMU of the ACC. Penn State is widely expected by many to come out of this weekend’s playoff matchup as a winner to setup a trip to the Fiesta Bowl to face Mountain West Conference champion Boise State. But, of course, postseason games are never won on paper. Penn State will have its work cut out for it against a talented SMU offense. But ESPN’s computers do think Penn State has a favorable outcome to look forward to.
ESPN’s win probability for Penn State in this week’s College Football Playoff matchup gives the Nittany Lions a 67.1% chance of advancing to the quarterfinal round of the playoff. The ESPN calculation shows that Penn State has the third-best win probability among home teams in the first round. Texas (80.4% win probability against Clemson) and Notre Dame (70.3% vs. Indiana) each had higher win probabilities against their first-round opponents. Ohio State has a 65.5% win probability against Tennessee.
Penn State is 1-0-1 all-time against SMU, with the most recent meeting coming nearly 50 years ago. This week will mark the second meeting in the postseason between the Nittany Lions and the Mustangs, with the previous meeting coming in the 1948 Cotton Bowl.
Penn State will host SMU on Saturday, Dec. 21 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
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