The hype for Michigan football is building with 2023 now less than a month away. The Wolverines have arguably the most proven talent returning, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t questions about the maize and blue.
ESPN’s resident advanced analytics guru Bill Connelly shared his thoughts on each of the top contenders across college football ($) and what the biggest ‘ifs’ are should any of them win the national championship.
For Michigan, he asks many of the same questions that we’ve been asking.
If … the receiving corps improves further. Last year, Michigan fielded its best offense yet under Jim Harbaugh, finishing seventh in offensive SP+. The Wolverines should again boast a dominant run game with Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards (2,454 yards last year) returning, along with three starters from an impressive line.
Quarterback J.J. McCarthy completed 65% of his passes and finished 16th in Total QBR, but big pass plays were mostly hard to come by (the Ohio State game aside), and in what Sports Info Solutions defined as “contested” passes, McCarthy averaged 3.7 yards per dropback, 142nd among 165 FBS passers with at least 100 passes. His receivers need to help him out a bit more in 2023.
If … another coordinator change doesn’t backfire. With offensive co-coordinator Matt Weiss fired for “computer access crimes” in January, Michigan is dealing with a coordinator change of sorts for the third straight year. Fellow co-coordinator Sherrone Moore just removed the “co-” from his title this time, but Weiss had a major role in playcalling, and constant change near the top of the pecking order can backfire eventually.
If … the pass rush holds up. Michigan ranked fifth in defensive SP+ and returns nine of the 14 defenders who saw 300-plus snaps last season. That includes steady linebackers Junior Colson and Michael Barrett and potential sophomore stars in corner Will Johnson and tackle Mason Graham.
For the second straight year, however, the Wolverines’ top two pass-rushers are gone. No returnee recorded more than 3.5 sacks, and no returning lineman came anywhere close to the 15.1% pressure rate recorded by new Seattle Seahawk Mike Morris. Be it sophomore Derrick Moore, Coastal Carolina transfer Josaiah Stewart or someone else, a new star must emerge.
We’re less concerned with the absence of Matt Weiss and more concerned with no obvious starter opposite Will Johnson at cornerback. While Josh Wallace has the promise as a former starter and team captain for UMass, it’s no guarantee that he’s the answer there.
Still, there are few holes for the Wolverines, and if J.J. McCarthy can take a step forward while the defense remains essentially the same in terms of productivity, Michigan will be difficult to beat.
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