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Michigan hasn’t quite gotten over the hump.
Since Jim Harbaugh arrived previous to the 2015 season, the Wolverines have had three 10 win seasons, but haven’t made the Big Ten Championship, nor have they reached the College Football Playoff. They’ve been close twice now, with the above goals on the table in the final regular season game against Ohio State. However, the Buckeyes — the only team in the Big Ten that Harbaugh hasn’t beaten — have kept the maize and blue from their elusive goals.
2020 will bring some fresh changes. There will be a new-look offensive line, a new starting quarterback, and a lot of fresh faces on the defensive side of the ball. For many, that screams disaster. But there are several ways that Michigan can reach the promised land — this year.
Four actually.
ESPN’s advanced stats guru Bill Connelly took a look at the major powers in college football and asked: what do they need to win a national championship? Some had as few as two ‘ifs,’ but for Michigan, Connelly listed four things that have to go right for the Wolverines to contend for the gold trophy at year’s end.
If … 2021 arrives early. Jim Harbaugh doesn’t share depth charts, but if he did, you’d notice something pretty quickly about 2020’s: almost no seniors. There might be only five or six senior starters and almost no final-year backups. The Wolverines’ returning production figures will therefore skyrocket next season, but this season will see a young cast of characters.
That’s not to say there’s not talent. From running backs Zach Charbonnet and Hassan Haskins to offensive tackle Jalen Mayfield to linebacker Cameron McGrone and safety Daxton Hill, the sophomore class alone is loaded with difference-makers. But they’ll need to mature at mach speed for the Wolverines to break through. Harbaugh’s next big swing is probably a year away.
If … a new offensive line jells. Charbonnet and Haskins were brilliant late in 2019 (as was the Michigan offense as a whole), but their degree of difficulty will increase considerably with both a new quarterback (likely either Dylan McCaffrey or Joe Milton) and a new line. Mayfield is the only returning starter, and only two others have seen much rotation time. That’s a less-than-optimal combination for sustaining improvement.
If … Big Game Don Brown returns. The Michigan defense has ranked 11th or better in defensive SP+ in every year of the Harbaugh era; Don Brown remains one of the best coordinators around. But the magic has vanished versus elite offenses. Against Alabama, Ohio State and Wisconsin in 2019 and Florida and Ohio State in 2018, the Wolverines allowed 46 points per game and 7.6 yards per play. Brown’s defense is boom-or-bust by nature, but that’s a lot of busts. Needless to say, that must change.
If … the red zone is friendlier. Scoring opportunities were a net loss for the Wolverines, something you almost never see from an otherwise good team. The Michigan offense averaged 4.9 points per scoring opportunity (34th in FBS), but the defense allowed 5.0 (115th). That edge must flip significantly. Last season’s CFP teams averaged a plus-1.1-point margin here (including Oklahoma’s awful red zone defense), not minus-0.1.
We can’t disagree with any of the above. It’s difficult to project Michigan winning it all unless all four listed categories are net pluses for the maize and blue.
While we are counting on much, if not all, of the above to happen, there, however, is still a major obstacle in the way — and that’s Ohio State.
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