Michigan football is coming off an incredible season in 2021 after defeating rival Ohio State, beating Iowa in the Big Ten Championship, and making its first College Football Playoff.
But the Wolverines aren’t being picked by many people, if any in the national media, to win the Big Ten in 2022. The consensus pick is that Ohio State will reign supreme once again over the Big Ten.
The narrative surrounding Michigan is that the Wolverines lost too many playmakers on the defensive side of the ball — Aidan Hutchinson, David Ojabo, and Daxton Hill to name a few — and it will be too hard to replace those said players. But the maize and blue rotate so many players that the defense may not have a ton of starting experience, but the Michigan defense in 2022 will have ample experience.
On Thursday, Heather Dinich with ESPN, wrote a piece about the 20 different teams that could make the College Football Playoff.
Michigan came in at No. 6 in the article, with a 17.6% chance to make the CFP, but only a 1.5% chance to win the CFP.
Of course, the most challenging test will be on Nov. 26 when Michigan travels to Columbus to take on Ohio State. Michigan beat the Buckeyes quite convincingly in 2021, 42-27. The maize and blue now have a taste as to what victory over OSU tastes like, so the Wolverines will look to make that twice in a row come late November this year. As Dinich wrote, ESPN’s FPI doesn’t give the Wolverines much of a chance to win in Columbus, but that’s why the game is played.
It’s the only regular-season game ESPN’s FPI doesn’t think the Wolverines will win, giving Ohio State an 84.8% chance. This is a must-win en route to the conference championship. In 2018 and 2021, it was a winner-take-all for the East Division. The Big Ten East winner has won the entire conference every season during the CFP era (8-0).
Dinich believes ‘the committee will like’ the crossover game at Iowa. Michigan has not won in Iowa since 2005, but the Wolverines have only lost by a single possession in the past four tries at Kinnick. The maize and blue thumped Iowa in the Big Ten Championship game, so the Wolverines will look to score some points against the Hawkeyes’ stout defense.
An Oct. 1 crossover win at Iowa. Kinnick Stadium has been unforgiving to Michigan, as the Wolverines have lost four in a row at Iowa — all by eight points or fewer (one possession). They haven’t won in Iowa City since 2005, and with the Buckeyes still looming, they certainly can’t afford to continue that streak.
We all know that in the College Football Playoff era that a single loss doesn’t necessarily eliminate any team from playoff contention, especially if that loss is against a big-time opponent like Ohio State. But what could hurt Michigan is its weak non-conference schedule. Which is exactly what Dinich believes may hurt the Wolverines in the committee’s eyes.
The nonconference schedule. Wins against Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn — programs that combined for a 10-27 record last year — aren’t going to help Michigan win any debates against another Power 5 contender with the same record and a marquee nonconference win.
The Wolverines will take the field on Sept. 3 against Colorado State. If the Wolverines can take care of business one game at a time, then we should expect to see the maize and blue right back in the CFP.
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