In previous years, one loss might have been enough to knock Penn State out of the College Football Playoff picture. This year that is no longer the case. The College Football Playoff has expanded this season from four teams to 12, giving Penn State and every other team around the country a little more margin for error. But Penn State taking its first loss of the season this weekend against Ohio State has put the Nittany Lions in a spot it did not want to be in with just four games remaining.
The good news is Penn State still sits in a favorable spot to make it into the 12-team College Football Playoff after losing to Ohio State this weekend. ESPN’s updated Football Power Index numbers on Sunday still give Penn State a 73.7% chance to be among the playoff participants. Going squarely off of the FPI playoff percentages, Penn State has the eighth-best odds to be in the College Football Playoff and is one of nine schools with at least a 70% chance.
Even if you account for the auto-bids for the five highest-ranked champions, Penn State would still be sitting in a playoff spot based on the playoff percentages and would be the no. 9 seed if seeded by playoff odds according to the FPI numbers. That would put Penn State on the road in the first round against Tennessee if seeding was sorted using the same numbers.
As long as Penn State can find a way to shake this loss to the Buckeyes and go on to take care of the rest of the regular season schedule, Penn State should be preparing for a playoff matchup in December, whether home or away. ESPN’s updated numbers do give Penn State favorable winning percentages the rest of the way this regular season, so a final record of 11-1 is entirely in play even if it comes without a shot at the Big Ten championship.
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