How much will Penn State’s season be impacted by this weekend’s loss at home to Ohio State? According to the latest numbers, it may not have changed all that much for the Nittany Lions.
This week’s updated look at the win percentages for Penn State still shows the Nittany Lions in a favorable spot in each of its remaining games. Each win probability did drop slightly this week, but not enough to raise much concern. The exception to that is the upcoming road trip to Minnesota. That matchup continues to trend in an ominous direction by the week and has now dropped Penn State’s win probability below 70% after the results of Week 10. Minnesota is a team trending up and is looking more like a problem for Penn State coming up.
Here is a look at the updated win probabilities for Penn State for each remaining game according to ESPN’s analytics.
Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
Predicted Winner | Penn State
Nittany Lions Win Probability | 87.2% (was 89.2%)
All-Time Series | PSU leads 3-0
Projected Running Record | 8-1
Ross-Ade Stadium (West Lafayette, Indiana)
Predicted Winner | Penn State
Nittany Lions Win Probability | 96.5% (was 96.7%)
All-Time Series | PSU leads 16-3-1
Projected Running Record | 9-1
Huntington Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, Minnesota)
Predicted Winner | Penn State
Nittany Lions Win Probability | 68.7% (was 72.1%)
All-Time Series | PSU leads 10-6
Projected Running Record | 10-1
Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
Predicted Winner | Penn State
Nittany Lions Win Probability | 89.5% (was 89.9%)
All-Time Series | PSU leads 43-1-3
Projected Running Record | 11-1
Penn State’s shot at a Big Ten title did get a lot tougher this weekend as a result of the loss to the Buckeyes. Penn State now has the fourth-best odds of winning the Big Ten mostly because it is much more challenging just to get into the conference championship game. ESPN’s FPI numbers agree, giving Penn State a 5.1% chance to win the Big Ten.
The good news is Penn State still has a favorable outlook to reach the College Football Playoff. ESPN’s FPI numbers give Penn State a 73.7% chance of being one of the 12 teams in this year’s playoff field, the eighth-best odds in the nation. Once they get there, however, Penn State is a long shot to win it all. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State a 9.2% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff and a 4.0% chance of winning the national title.
But at least there’s a chance!