The 49ers’ continuity coming off a 13-win season and a jaunt to the Super Bowl bodes well for their chances to find similar success in 2020. ESPN’s Football Power Index projects San Francisco to be among the NFL’s best teams again, and has them among the five favorites to win the Super Bowl.
Per ESPN’s prediction model, the 49ers are projected for 10.2 wins and have an 81 percent chance of making it back to the postseason. Their win total ties them with the Saints for the best in the NFC. Both clubs are behind the Chiefs and Ravens. New Orleans is just ahead of San Francisco in playoff chances at 83 percent.
New Orleans is also just ahead of the 49ers among projected Super Bowl winners. The Chiefs lead that category at 21 percent, followed by the Ravens at 17 percent. The Saints are at 13 percent, one point in front of the 49ers.
Projection models aren’t perfect predictors of success, but they provide a good snapshot of where teams are going into the season. The 49ers traded away arguably their best player on defense and had their Pro Bowl left tackle retire during the draft. It would stand to reason that there’d be a regression.
However, they’ve built a strong enough roster, and maneuvered through the draft to replace defensive tackle DeForest Buckner with No. 14 overall pick Javon Kinlaw, and left tackle Joe Staley with seven-time Pro Bowler Trent Williams.
The biggest takeaway from ESPN’s FPI projections is that the 49ers should be in the mix for a Super Bowl again despite two significant losses in the offseason. That shouldn’t be a stretch if Kinlaw and first-round wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk adapt quickly to the NFL. They’ll be tasked with filling two of the voids created on each side of the ball during the offseason.
While teams generally have a hard to recovering from a Super Bowl loss, the 49ers are in a unique position to be at an advantage with the truncated offseason brought on by COVID-19 shutdowns. Integrating fewer players into substantial roles will allow San Francisco to be somewhat ahead of the curve whenever the NFL does open team facilities for offseason activities.
Two years ago the 49ers were wrapping up a 4-12 season that earned them the No. 2 overall pick. Now they’re coming off a Super Bowl loss and are among the favorites to make it back. Winning a Lombardi Trophy is the ultimate goal, but being in the conversation as perennial contenders is a good start.
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