ESPN BPI forecasts ACC photo finish with Duke and UNC’s near-identical projected records

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index expects the ACC to come down to a photo finish with Duke and UNC currently sitting on near-identical expected records.

The ACC is routinely one of the most competitive conferences in men’s basketball, and the 2023-24 season is shaping up to be no different.

North Carolina currently leads the way with an 11-2 record in conference play, but Virginia and Duke both sit just a game back at 10-3 apiece and all three teams are 19-5 for the season. Which of the three has the advantage down the stretch?

According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, the advantage goes to the Tar Heels…narrowly. North Carolina is expected to win 24.4 games during the regular season, according to the BPI projections, but Duke is expected to win 24.1 to sit right on their heels. The Cavaliers are third with 22.8 expected wins.

North Carolina’s advantage widens slightly when looking at ACC records. The Tar Heels are projected to win 16.3 conference games compared to Duke’s 15.1 and UVA’s 13.8 projected wins.

However, all signs seem to indicate the conference coming down to next month’s clash at Cameron Indoor.