With the NFL season through its first quarter, ESPN analyst Seth Walder is revisiting his preseason predictions, and he expects quarterback Kirk Cousins’ hot start to the season to continue. In his column, he predicts that Cousins will top 5,000 yards passing this season — a reasonable expectation considering the pace that Cousins is on.
Through the first four games of the NFL season, Cousins has thrown for just over 1,200 yards and 11 touchdowns, putting him on pace for over 5,100 yards and 44 touchdowns at season’s end.
Walder’s original prediction for the Vikings season was that running back Ty Chandler would take the reins at running back and lead the team in rushing. That prediction seemed reasonable during preseason play, as Chandler was a star and there was significant buzz about him heading into the season.
However, those hopes were quickly dashed, as it was clear from the outset of the season that Alexander Mattison was going to get the lion’s share of the work at the position. That prediction was further sunk when the Vikings traded for Rams RB Cam Akers.
Walder’s new prediction, however, seems to have much more chance of coming to fruition. Cousins and the Kevin O’Connell offense have been clicking so far — with the notable exception of last week’s win against the Panthers. If the passing attack can get back on track, 5,000 yards seems well within striking distance for Cousins.
That mark would set a career high for Cousins — his current personal best is 4,917 during the 2016 season with Washington — and would be about 450 yards more than his best season with the Vikings (2022).
Not only is Cousins on pace to surpass the 5,000-yard mark, but his passing has Justin Jefferson on pace to be the first wide receiver to eclipse the 2,000-yard mark in a season. As Walder points out in his prediction, the Vikings are passing the ball 69% of the time when their win probability is between 15 and 85 percent.
That prolific passing attack has served the team well, outside of a number of costly turnovers, and is unlikely to shrink drastically. This seems like an easy pick through the first quarter of the season.
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