When the NFL initiated new kickoff rules for the 2024 season, they did so hoping it would lead to a decrease in touchbacks and increase in returns. In 2023 only 21.8% of kicks were returned, with kicking teams preferring to hand the ball over on the 25-yard line via touchback.
Cowboys return man KaVontae Turpin felt the pain. After making the 2022 Pro Bowl teams avoided him, only giving him 10 returnable kicks last season. What was once the most exciting play in football had suddenly become a snooze fest. It was clear something had to be done.
New league rules designed to reduce injures and increase returns were just what the doctor called for. With squib kick penalties going to the 40-yard line and touchbacks moving to the 30-yard line, the NFL incentivized teams to allow playmakers like the Cowboys’ Turpin a chance to return kicks. It made sense in theory, but would it come to fruition in reality?
Early returns (see what I did there?) say “yes.”
According to The Athletic’s Tashan Reed the NFL’s kickoff return rate jumped to about 78% through the first two weeks of the preseason. It’s an enormous boost, but not entirely uncommon for the preseason. In the two years prior 54.7% were returned, twice that of the regular season.
Based on this it’s fair to say kickoff returns are on the rise under the new rules, and in the same breath, admit the fact these are consequence-free exhibition games, so the number is also inflated to a degree.
Average kick return field position this preseason is sitting at the 28.1-yard line. Teams who deliver returnable kicks are on average winning the battle. But is the reward really worth the risk?
A touchback concedes the 30-yard line but there’s zero threat of a return. Any ball that’s returned comes with the risk of not only crossing the 30-yard line, but potentially scoring. Two yards probably aren’t worth that risk.
Teams are returning kicks at such a high rate this season because real consequences don’t exist. It’s the same reason teams are going for it on so many fourth downs over the preseason. Neither are likely to carry over to the same degree into the regular season.
The NFL is open to more tweaks to the kickoff rules in order to get their desired results. Based on the risk-reward nature of kick returns, the early returns on the numbers this preseason might not hold up. If that’s the case, there’s a good chance they will need to move the touchback spot to the 35-yards line in the near future.
Any increase is better than no increase for the Cowboys and Turpin. Any chance to get the ball into Turpin’s hands has to be seen as a good thing, unfortunately it may not be as often as some would hope.
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