While NFL scouts and analysts are spending their time grinding tape on all of the top draft prospects, you are probably spending your quarantine doing something far more productive. OK, maybe trying to make sourdough bread while binging Netflix isn’t productive, but it’s damn sure a more rewarding way to spend time than studying draft prospects.
So we went ahead and did that work for you. I’ve done all the grinding and picked out one play that perfectly explains who each prospect is as a quarterback.
“One play” should set off your SMALL SAMPLE SIZE alarms, but I feel these plays are representative of a quarterback’s entire body of work. Let’s get started…
Joe Burrow, LSU
Burrow has been billed as a special prospect. I don’t know if I’m ready to go that far, but he does have two very special traits: His poise in the pocket and his accuracy. Both are on full display on this play.
The play
Let’s break it down
LSU is running “four verticals” from a three-by one set. The offense typically wants to see a single-high coverage from the defense when running this concept, but Burrow is getting two safeties deep before the snap.
The picture changes immediately after the snap: Mississippi State rushes the strongside linebacker and plays man-to-man across the board with one safety deep. That safety initially creeps over to the single-receiver side but Burrow is facing a more pressing matter after his left tackle is beat immediately.
This doesn’t rattle Burrow, who calmly climbs the pocket and slides to his left in order to find space to make the throw. And he does all of this while keeping his eyes downfield.
That allows him to see that the crosser is being capped by the deep safety and he moves on to the next receiver in his progression. That’s Derrick Dillon, who beats his man inside and gets open deep.
Burrow’s job isn’t done. He’s found an open receiver but still has to get it to him downfield while under duress. He lofts a pass over Mississippi State’s helpless secondary and hits Dillon right in stride. That’s why he’ll be the first player off the board on April 23.
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Jacob Eason, Washington
Eason hasn’t been included in the first-round discussion but he’s got a couple things going for him: He’s big, he has experience in a pro-style offense and he’s got a bazooka attached to his right shoulder. Typically those guys go high in the draft, but Eason won’t.
Why?
Decisions like this…
The play
Let’s break it down
Washington opens up in a two-by-two formation but motions to a three-by-one and runs three vertical routes with the single receiver running underneath.
As it was intended to do, that pre-snap motion screws with the USC secondary. The free safety is the key man for Eason. He runs with the crosser, which leaves the slot receiver wide open after the Trojans forget to carry him downfield. Whoops.
This should be an easy read for Eason, but he’s not even reading the safety. For whatever reason, his eyes are on the underneath receiver, who is running through a glut of defenders. Look where the receiver is when Eason starts his throwing motion.
Somehow, the play works out for Eason despite a bad decision and an inaccurate throw that forces his receiver to adjust to the ball, slowing his momentum.
Those mistakes are typically punished in the NFL, as Eason will soon learn … if he ever sees the field.
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Jake Fromm, Georgia
Fromm very clearly knows how to play the quarterback position, which is probably why the Georgia coaching staff preferred him over two players — Eason and Justin Fields — with better pro prospects. But knowing how to play the position and actually executing on the field are two different things, and Fromm’s physical limitations prevent him from doing the latter on a consistent basis. That’s especially true when Fromm has to improvise or make a play on the move. He knows where to go with the football. It’s getting the ball to the intended target that gives him issues, as you’ll see here…
The play
Let’s break it down
Georgia has a “doubles” concept called with the two outside receivers running hitches and the slot receiver running an in-breaking route over the middle. With only three receivers running routes, Fromm doesn’t have a lot of options.
His first read is the in-breaking route over the middle, but that’s well covered and it doesn’t take long for Fromm to process that.
His next read is the hitch route, but by the time his eyes get there the cornerback has it covered. Fromm is starting to feel the pressure and drifts to his left (uh oh) as his receiver goes into scramble drill mode.
The receiver’s quick turn upfield gets him open downfield and Fromm has more than enough time to get him the ball. He tries his best to do so, but…
Fromm did everything right on the play until it was time to actually make the throw. That happens a lot. He’ll make a fine coach one day. That day may be coming sooner rather than later.
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Anthony Gordon, Washington State
Gordon is a maniac, and I (irrationally) love him. He was the J.R. Smith of college football, and here’s hoping he gets a chance to be the J.R. Smith of the NFL.
When his swashbuckling, make-a-play-at-any-cost style works, it’s thoroughly entertaining to watch and Gordon looks like he might be worth a Day 2 pick. When it doesn’t work, things can get pretty ugly. While decision-making is clearly an issue, Gordon’s craftiness under pressure, which is on full display in the following clip, gives him a chance to develop into an NFL starter.
The play
Let’s break it down
Washington state has a nifty “pump-and-go” concept on. Gordon tries to draw the UCLA defenders closer to the line of scrimmage by faking the screen pass, and the switch routes are designed to create even more confusion for the Bruins secondary.
UCLA’s secondary sorts it all out and has the vertical route well covered. It takes Gordon a second to realize what he’s looking at, and, as he’s wont to do, he just sort of stands there as if his brain has briefly turned off.
Gordon eventually snaps back to reality and moves on to his next read, which is the deep crossing route.
It’s open, but this is no easy play. UCLA’s second-level defenders are gaining depth and, all of a sudden, there’s a pass rusher right in Gordon’s grill. He has to throw it side-armed to get the pass off.
Even with the awkward delivery, Gordon makes the difficult throw. He doesn’t have the strongest arm, but, thanks to his baseball background, he does have flexibility that allows him to make throws that other quarterbacks wouldn’t even think to attempt. That’s not always a good thing.
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Justin Herbert, Oregon
I don’t know if Herbert is actually good at football, but it *looks* like he’s good at football and that’s typically enough for big, athletic quarterbacks with a strong arm. It’s the mental aspects of the position that will turn smarter teams away. Herbert’s arm can make up for some of his processing issues, but not always. Here is one of those times.
The play
Let’s break it down
Oregon is running a Chip Kelly staple known as “Saints.” The progression is simple for the quarterback. He’s reading the vertical routes from right to left and then hitting his check down if no one gets open deep.
With the corner at the top of the screen playing 10 yards off the line, Herbert quickly eliminates that receiver as an option, and moves onto his next read, who is also covered. Fortunately, his third option has beaten his man inside and has provided Herbert with enough space to make a throw into the end zone.
Herbert is eyeing the receiver, but, for whatever reason, hesitates to make the throw. This is a quarterback who doesn’t have confidence in what he’s seeing.
Herbert finally lets go of the ball and launches a heat-seeking missile that finds its target, but…
The throw carries the receiver out of bounds. Incomplete.
Herbert had the arm to make a difficult throw, but his uncertainty in what he was seeing let him down. If Herbert can speed up his process — and refine his accuracy — he’ll develop into a quality starter.
If not, a GM is probably getting fired.
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Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma
I may not know if Herbert is good at football, but I can tell you this: Hurts certainly is. I just don’t know if he’s a good enough quarterback to make it to the next level. I’ll say this: He has shown enough progress as a passer to maintain some hope … he’s just not quite there yet.
The play
Let’s break it down
Oklahoma is running an “F-post concept” here. Hurts can hit the seam route if he likes the look pre-snap, but the primary concept involves the tight ends.
Hurts’ eyes take him to the seam route initially, but Houston has an in-and-out bracket on that receiver.
Hurts does the right thing and moves his eyes to the tight ends. The shallow route by the first tight end and the wheel by the running back clears out a perfect throwing window for the post.
That’s how the play is designed to work so Hurts should anticipate this coming open. He doesn’t…
The receiver is open but Hurts has gone into scramble mode. With Hurts, who is a brilliant runner, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
Hurts is able to pick up good yardage but he left a big play on the field by not making an anticipation throw that NFL coaches will expect him to make every time.
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Jordan Love, Utah State
Let’s stop with the Patrick Mahomes comparisons. Love is no Mahomes. He’s got a special arm but the playmaking instinct just isn’t on that level. Love just doesn’t have the feel for the game that separates your typical strong-armed prospects from a player like Mahomes — but he does have the physical tools to make some of those jaw-dropping throws we see from the Chiefs quarterback. Let’s take a look…
The play
Let’s break it down
Utah State is in an empty formation and Love has his choice of two “switch” concepts. With Boise State in a Cover 0 look, the route combo to the bottom of the screen is looking awfully enticing.
That’s where Love looks first, and the inside glance route looks like a winner. Love just has to see it and make the throw. With that arm, this should be 6…
And this is what I’m talking about: Love’s instincts don’t tell him to make that throw immediately. He has to see it and confirm it with his eyes and the hesitation costs him.
So he bails on the pocket. For most quarterbacks, this would be the beginning of the end. Not for love. His arm bails him out as he’s able to make a deep perimeter throw while on the run from pressure.
Those throws might excite some scouts, but if Love just trusts his instincts and makes a far easier throw over the middle, there are points on the scoreboard.
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Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
All of the plays I’ve picked thus far have either gone for big yardage or had the potential to go for big yardage. That’s not going to be the case for Tua, and that was intentional. This is just your run-of-the-mill drive starter, but Tua’s quick processing stands out. That’s how he’ll win on the next level.
The play
Let’s break it down
This is a common “spacing” concept. The progression will take Tua’s eyes from right to left, starting with the quick out route.
The Tennessee defender is playing with outside leverage, which Tua sees as he starts his three-step drop.
He’s moved on to option no. 2 by his second step, but with the linebacker in a perfect spot to cut off the route, Tua knows he can move on.
Last step of the drop and Tua has moved onto his third read, who is wide open with Tennessee blitzing a linebacker.
It’s not exciting but this is pro-level quarterbacking. That pretty much describes Tua as a prospect.
You don’t often see a quarterback get to his third read by the end of his drop, but Tua does it here and it allows him to easily beat a blitz. Tua may never develop into a star, but he’s going to stick around the league for a long time because he’s able to repeatedly make boring plays like this.
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