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After winning his first career green jacket in the fall, Dustin Johnson returns to Augusta National Golf Club to defend his Masters title just five months later. Below, we look at the 2021 Masters odds for Dustin Johnson and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions to win.
Johnson slipped to No. 2 in the latest update of the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings amid a relatively lackluster start to his 2021 schedule.
He won three times in his final 11 events of 2020 in addition to winning the season-long points race and the FedEx Cup. He won the Masters by five strokes at 20-under par in his final event of the calendar year.
His only win through six international events to start 2021 was at the European Tour’s Saudi International, and he has just one top-10 finish in five events on American soil.
Best bets for Dustin Johnson at the 2021 Masters
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:08 a.m. ET.
Tournament winner: +900
If you truly in believe in Johnson going back-to-back at Augusta National, betting him at 9-1 to win the tournament offers the highest payout. A $100 bet would return a profit of $900 with an implied win probability of 10 percent in the field of 88.
The biggest hurdle may be the fact no one has gone back-to-back as Masters champion since Tiger Woods in 2001 and 2002. Even with unimpressive recent results, Johnson leads the Tour with 2.51 total strokes gained on the field per round over 28 measured rounds on the 2020-21 season.
Top-10 finish: -115
A safer bet is to back Johnson for what would be his sixth straight top-10 finish at the Masters. It would take a $115 bet to fetch a profit of $100, but there are seemingly few safer bets on the board.
He tied for second in 2019 and has missed the cut just once in 10 career appearances. In addition, he tied for second at the 2020 PGA Championship and for sixth at the US Open.
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Top American: +600
The second-most profitable bet on Johnson is for him to finish as the top American, where a $100 bet would fetch a profit of $600 with an implied win probability of 14.29 percent.
Four of the top-five and 11 of the top-14 betting favorites are American. We get only a slightly reduced price on Johnson while leaving open the possibility of Jon Rahm (+1100), Rory McIlroy (+1800), Viktor Hovland (+3300) or any other long-shot international winner donning the green jacket.
Top former winner: +175
With Woods, the 2019 Masters champ, not participating this year, Johnson’s greatest competition in this pool is 2015 Masters winner and recent Valero Texas Open champ Jordan Spieth (+240). Spieth shares the second-best odds to win the tournament at +1100.
The only other real threats to Johnson are Patrick Reed (+550), Sergio Garcia (+900), Adam Scott (+1000) and Bubba Watson (+1200). Each of them is priced at +3000 or higher to win the Masters with implied win probabilities of 3.23 percent or lower.
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Tournament matchup vs. Justin Thomas: -135
Johnson’s 72-hole tournament matchup is against the reigning Players Championship winner and Golfweek’s ninth-ranked golfer.
Johnson finished better than Thomas in every Masters in which they both participated to date. Additionally, Johnson has averaged 2.23 strokes gained on the field per round at ANGC; Thomas averaged 1.94.
It would take a $135 bet on Johnson to return a profit of $100 if he finishes better than Thomas by the end of the fourth round.
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