At wide receiver, the Green Bay Packers replaced Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown and Malik Taylor with Sammy Watkins, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Samori Toure in 2022.
The trade-off should have created a massive drop-off in production at wide receiver, right?
There was certainly a drop-off, specifically in efficiency and situationally, but maybe not as massive a drop-off as many were expecting, especially considering three rookies were involved, Watkins only played in nine games and Amari Rodgers was released midseason.
Here are the raw numbers from 2021 to 2022:
| Packers WRs | 2021 | 2022 |
| Targets | 364 | 327 |
| Catches | 240 | 200 |
| Catch% | 65.9 | 61.1 |
| Receiving yards | 3,086 | 2,596 |
| Yards/completion | 12.9 | 12.9 |
| Yards/target | 8.5 | 7.9 |
| TDs | 27 | 18 |
| Passer rating targeted | 110.2 | 94.3 |
In terms of averages, the Packers got about two targets, two catches, 28 yards and half-a-touchdown less from wide receivers per game this season than in 2021.
Allen Lazard set new career-highs with 60 catches and 788 receiving yards, Doubs and Randall Cobb contributed enough as complementary pieces, Watkins and Toure contributed just enough in limited roles, and, most importantly, Watson ascended to the doorstep of stardom over the final two months.
Overall, Watson and Doubs combined to catch 83 passes for 1,036 yards and 10 touchdowns on 133 targets. Adams caught 123 passes for 1,553 yards and 11 touchdowns on 169 targets last year. The All-Pro was clearly better and more valuable than the two rookies, but Watson and Doubs hed their own in Year 1.
Efficiency is certainly worth considering, especially passer rating. The number when targeting receivers in 2022 plummeted by almost 16 points. That’s a big deal.
Why the drop?
The red zone is a good place to look.
This season, Packers receivers caught only 12 touchdown passes inside the 20-yard line. In 2021, Packers receivers caught 21, including 10 from Adams. The offense had major issues inside the red zone, and losing Adams was almost certainly a big reason why.
On third and fourth down, Packers receivers had 47 first-down catches. Adams had 25 by himself last year. Rodgers’ passer rating on third or fourth down was 111.6 in 2021; it was 77.8 this year. The loss of an All-Pro No. 1 receiver certainly played a part situationally.
There’s no way around it: the overall regression of the passing efficiency in Green Bay was tied – at least in part – to the changes at receiver in 2022. In vivid detail, this season displayed the importance of Adams, both to Matt LaFleur’s offense and Aaron Rodgers the quarterback. He was missed in big spots like third down, fourth down and the red zone, three areas that killed LaFleur’s team over and over in losses. The Packers certainly could have done more to make it work at the position after losing Adams, but the numbers say the drop-off in overall production wasn’t as monumental as the situation initially suggested.
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