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Peyton Manning retired after the 2015 season on his own terms, having clinched the second Super Bowl victory that eluded him (and that New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees had a hand in denying him, back in 2009) as well as the NFL’s record for career touchdown passes, with 539.
But that record won’t remain his forever. Brees is hot on his heels after lobbing a scoring pass to backup Saints quarterback Taysom Hill last Thursday against the Atlanta Falcons, putting him at 532 in his NFL career. That ties the mark for second-best set by New England Patriots legend Tom Brady, who will play the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football.
That means Brady will have a chance to break his tie with Brees and gain further ground on Manning’s all-time lead. However, he’ll hardly have an easy go of it; flu season has hit New England hard, with 17 players listed as questionable to suit up in Houston. The Patriots even chartered a second airplane to travel cross-country and avoid further contamination between sick players and their (so far) healthy teammates.
Among Brady’s top receiving options, three will be dealing with injuries or the flu if they play at all. The list includes wide receivers Julian Edelman (shoulder), Phillip Dorsett (concussion), and Mohamed Sanu (ankle). With just five games left in the regular season, Brady has to score eight more touchdown passes to break Manning’s record — a rate of 1.6 per game. He’s averaged just 1.36 through his first 11 games, which opens the door for Brees to overtake him and possibly break the record first.
New Orleans only has four games left in the regular season, meaning Brees must average 2.0 touchdown passes per game to break the record. His five-game stint on the sidelines with an injury notwithstanding, the Saints quarterback has averaged 1.7 through seven starts this year. Take out his early exit against the Los Angeles Rams and that average rises to 2.0 per game, meaning the record is well within reach.
Whoever ends up setting this record before the other retires will likely hold onto it for quite some time. The only other active quarterbacks behind them are a gaggle of fringe Hall of Famers like Philip Rivers (389), Ben Roethlisberger (363), Eli Manning (362), Aaron Rodgers (356), and Matt Ryan (315), and each of them is closer to retirement than their prime.
As the youngest members on that list, Rodgers (who turns 36 on Monday) would need to average 2.3 touchdown passes per game for the next five years to break Manning’s record, while Ryan (who will be 35 in May) would have to average 2.34 for six years. Rodgers is only scoring 1.6 touchdown passes per game this season, and Ryan is scoring at a clip of 1.81 per game.
Those are some long odds, which only raises the pressure on Brees and Brady. Whoever ends up owning this record will have bragging rights that last nearly a decade.
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