Entering this NBA season, most people would have picked the Atlanta Hawks to finish higher in the standings than the Cleveland Cavaliers. I certainly would have.
The Hawks were flying into the year riding the high of a successful run to the conference finals. The Cavs were coming off a 22-win season and fourth straight year picking in the lottery. I wasn’t expecting the fruits of those picks to blossom for another year or two, especially after they lost 2018 first-round pick Collin Sexton just 11 games into the season.
But as the year progressed, it was clear the Hawks weren’t the same team that knocked off the Knicks and sent the 76ers into full-blown chaos after last year’s playoffs. And behind the progression of 2019 first-round pick Darius Garland and trade acquisition Jarrett Allen into All-Stars, the Cavs were a lot better than anyone anticipated.
Yet, as these teams enter Friday’s do-or-die play-in game for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference, we’re right back at square one. The Hawks are road favorites by 2.5 points over the Cavs on Tipico Sportsbook. It’s been another swift about-face for both teams, almost as unexpected as the previous ones. And my advice for bettors is simply not to overthink it. We thought the Hawks, not the Cavs, would be in the playoffs entering the season. Roll with that.
The Hawks and Cavaliers will play for the 8 seed and the right to face the Miami Heat in Round 1.
The Cavaliers are trying to make the playoffs without LeBron James for the first time since 1997-98. pic.twitter.com/ACRJ676S1s
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 15, 2022
The catalyst for Cleveland’s decline from top-four seed entering March to potentially missing the playoffs was an injury to Allen, who has been upgraded to questionable for Friday’s game. If he returns and plays for the first time since March 6, I reserve the right to change my pick. But that’s how important he is to this team. Cleveland was just 7-11 down the stretch of the season without him and also lost its first play-in game to Brooklyn.
Atlanta on the other hand also lost a starting big, but that’s exactly when they began to take off. They went 11-5 to close the season without John Collins, who I would have assumed to be more important to his team’s success than Allen entering the year. That hasn’t been the case, however, and I just don’t think the Cavs will have enough defense without him to slow the Hawks — or enough offense to keep up.
Atlanta has a bottom five defensive rating over the course of the season but ranks 11th in the last 15 games, better than the Cavs who are 24th in that time. Paired with a top 10 offense in that span, the Hawks have the league’s seventh-best net rating. As hard as it is to do, I’m ignoring what we’ve seen over the course of most of 82 games and taking the Hawks to ride this momentum and end up in the playoffs where they always belonged.