Obviously, we didn’t do anything well enough today to deserve to win, so we’ll be playing next week and we’ll see who that is.
Bill Belichick, December 29, 2019
On the final day of the 2019 regular season, the New England Patriots had a chance at something special.
A first-round bye.
All that was standing in their way was Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Miami Dolphins. You know, the team that was “Tanking for Tua.”
Instead of securing the win and a week off, the Dolphins pulled out a victory in the closing seconds, setting the stage for the end of the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick Era in Foxborough.
New faces are in place in both New England and in Miami, but there’s one crucial matchup worth a very close watch: Miami receiver DeVante Parker versus Patriots cornerback (and defending NFL Defensive Player of the Year) Stephon Gilmore. Last season, Parker closed out his season by giving Gilmore a very hard time. It could happen again. Parker racked up eight receptions for 137 yards, with the bulk of those coming against Gilmore.
The first of those was perhaps the most bizarre completion allowed by the Patriots’ defender since Keenan Allen beat him for a touchdown at the start of the Patriots 2018-2019 Divisional Round game against the Los Angeles Chargers. On this play Parker is matched up against Gilmore on the left side of the formation:
At first blush this looks like a double-move, given how Gilmore reacts, but upon review Parker is just running a straight vertical route, maybe with a slight bend to the outside, but Gilmore squats like he expects a hitch. Fitzpatrick does nothing to influence the CB – nary a flinch – but when Gilmore sits down Parker accelerates past him for the completion.
Just a few plays later, Parker spun Gilmore into the Gillette Stadium turf on this exotic out pattern:
Parker begins this play aligned on the left side of the formation, but motions across the ball and Gilmore trails him. The receiver runs an out route, but sells Gilmore first on a vertical route, and then on a potential post, before breaking outside for the reception. Watch the cornerback’s hips here. Gilmore opens them early, fearing the vertical route, and then when Parker gets into the blind spot and cuts inside, Gilmore is forced to open his hips again on the baseball turn to the middle of the field. That is when Parker slices back towards the sideline, getting a huge amount of separation. This…is an exquisite route from Parker.
Later in the second quarter, Gilmore gets the better of Parker on another vertical route:
On this play Gilmore is much more patient with his hips, only firing them when Parker has declared his intentions. That allows Gilmore to stay in position longer, and then fight through the catch point to disrupt the throw.
The balance shifts back to Parker in the second half, particularly on these three fourth quarter receptions. First up is a look we might see from the Patriots on Sunday, Cover 0:
Last year the Patriots loved to bring pressure and play straight Cover 0 behind it, trusting in their secondary to lock down the opponent’s receivers. This led to some huge plays for the Patriots’ defense early in the year, but as offenses started to figure it out, it let New England down later in the season. Here, Gilmore knows that he has no safety help over the top, so he gives Parker cushion before the snap. Yet he still thinks the vertical route is coming, and transitions into run mode when Parker cuts under him.
Now is a good time to mention what happened in Week 16. Playing on Saturday night in a must-win game, the Patriots emerged victorious against the Buffalo Bills. But in that contest John Brown caught a touchdown on a deep post route that many attributed to a mistake by Gilmore:
John Brown took Gilmore to receiver school. pic.twitter.com/7Nj0cXpeS6
— NFL Unwrapped (@NFLunwrapped) December 22, 2019
Now, the true culprit here was safety Devin McCourty, but watching Gilmore a week later wary of vertical routes has me wondering if this moment was in the back of his mind during Week 17.
On the game-winning drive from Miami, Parker had two more receptions. This one comes on a, you guessed it, vertical route:
Gilmore just loses sight of the football.
It’s important to highlight that Patriots’ defensive backs are taught to play the catch point, and rake up through the pocket of the receiver, and not turn to locate the football or swipe down on the receiver’s arms. For a discussion of this, you can see this clinic presentation Matt Patricia gave at Notre Dame while he was with the Patriots, fast-forwarding to around the 37-minute mark:
But on this play Gilmore loses sight of the catch point and cannot rake up through the pocket, and Parker pulls down the reception.
Parker’s final catch comes on this play, with under a minute left:
Here, Gilmore is playing off coverage and protecting the goalline, and he is willing to concede this short reception.
The Dolphins would score the game-winner on the next snap.
But the fact of the matter is, Gilmore was bested by Parker on many occasions that Sunday. Whether it was a hangover from the Brown play the week prior, or Parker’s route-running (as it seemed on that exotic out route) we cannot be sure. Perhaps it was a combination thereof. But with Parker in position to play Sunday after missing time during training camp, how this rematch between CB and WR plays out will go a long way towards determining out this rematch of Week 17 ends up.