The Miami Dolphins’ long shot playoff chances aren’t so unlikely anymore. While the team still needs a little bit of help, back to back wins combined with slip-ups from the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts have the Dolphins nipping at the heels of the last wild card team in the AFC.
If the Dolphins can improve to 9-8 next week with a win against the New York Jets, they’d only need the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Broncos.
How realistic is that? Here’s what the numbers say:
What are Dolphins’ NFL playoffs odds?
As of right now, it’s still much more likely than not that the Dolphins will be left on the outside of the playoff bracket.
The New York Times’ playoff simulator is giving the Dolphins about a 10 percent chance. And even if they win next week against the Jets, it only improves their shot to about a 19 percent chance.
NFL.com is a little kinder with the Dolphins’ listed with a 28 percent chance.
The biggest issue for Miami is that the Chiefs have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC and have little incentive to beat up on the Broncos next weekend.
In similar circumstances last year, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, L’Jarius Sneed, and Trent McDuffie were just a few of the players who didn’t play in the Chiefs’ regular season finale. With Blaine Gabbert at quarterback, Kansas City won anyway, beating the Los Angeles Chargers, 13-12.
What team(s) the Dolphins could face
The only possible seed the Dolphins could secure is No. 7, guaranteeing no postseason game will be played at Hard Rock Stadium, regardless of outcomes.
And that means the only team Miami could possibly face is the Buffalo Bills, who have clinched the No. 2 seed with their 13-3 record.
The Bills have two wins against the Dolphins this season. The first was a 31-10 demolition in Miami in Week 2. In early November, the Dolphins put up more of a fight, but the Bills got a 30-27 win with a 61-yard walk-off field goal.
If the Dolphins managed to both reach the playoffs and beat the Bills in Buffalo, they’d be headed to Kansas City to face the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
NFL playoffs schedule
All times Eastern
Wild-card round
Saturday, January 11, 2025
- AFC/NFC Wild Card Matchup – 1 p.m. (CBS or FOX)
- AFC/NFC Wild Card Matchup – 4:30 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
- AFC/NFC Wild Card Matchup – 8 p.m. (Peacock)
Sunday, January, 12, 2025
- AFC/NFC Wild Card Matchup – 4:30 p.m. (CBS or FOX)
- AFC/NFC Wild Card Matchup – 8:15 p.m. (NBC)
Monday, January 13, 2025
- AFC/NFC Wild Card Matchup – 8:15 p.m. (ESPN/ABC)
Divisional round
Saturday, January 18, 2025
- AFC/NFC Divisional Matchup – 4:30 p.m.
- AFC/NFC Divisional Matchup – 8:15 p.m.
Sunday, January 19, 2025
- AFC/NFC Divisional Matchup – 3 p.m.
- AFC/NFC Divisional Matchup – 6:30 p.m.
Conference Championship round
Sunday, January 26, 2025
- NFC Conference Championship – 3 p.m. (FOX)
- AFC Conference Championship – 6:30 p.m. (CBS)
Super Bowl LIX
Sunday, February 9, 2025
- AFC Champion vs. NFC Champion – 6:30 p.m. (FOX)
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