This is it. Fans of the Miami Dolphins have waited for four months to see what the end result of the team’s rebuilding effort would pay off to be. And with the Dolphins sitting at 3-11, everything is in front of the team. Would an additional win be nice? Yes, absolutely. Further separating the team from the stench of the Cincinnati Bengals would be a great boost to Miami’s self worth this season and potentially snowball into future seasons as part of the instilled culture in Miami the abhors losing.
But a loss isn’t all bad either. Because a loss in Week 16 to the Cincinnati Bengals almost assuredly guarantees the Dolphins to finish 3-13 — they play the Patriots in Foxboro next week. And 3-13? It is going to give the Dolphins a strong chance of guaranteeing a top-2 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Why does that matter? Well, if the Bengals fumble away their 2 game lead in the NFL Draft order, Miami may well secure the top spot and be in position to draft LSU quarterback Joe Burrow if they so choose. If the team drafts second, they’re in prime position to draft an elite player in Chase Young from Ohio State. Or, if all the rumblings around the Dolphins fan base and media coverage turn out to be fact and the Dolphins would prefer a different defensive end due to “scheme fit” with Miami, the Dolphins are sitting on a treasure trove again worth trading. A team would almost assuredly give up multiple 1st-round picks to get a crack at drafting Young.
None of this materializes if the Dolphins win on Sunday against the Bengals. The team will be fine either way, make no mistake — they’re going to get creative and manipulate the NFL Draft order to maximize their assets. But if the Dolphins want the option to draft an elite prospect at a position of need or potentially flip their pick in another monster deal? All of those paths run through a home loss to Cincinnati.
Even a win would leave the Dolphins picking no higher than 5th as things currently stand — the Arizona Cardinals owning a tie this season protects the Dolphins from dropping out of the top-5.
That is, of course, unless they find a way to beat both the Bengals and the Patriots.
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