Does Jason Witten have a place on McCarthy’s 2020 Cowboys?

Can Jason Witten still contribute to a team in 2020? Is Mike McCarthy willing to find out?

With the new league year (perhaps) approaching, the Dallas Cowboys face a bevy of decisions to make ahead of Mike McCarthy’s first season as coach. Most of the discussions have centered around Dallas’s most prominent names, but each choice the Cowboys make in constructing their roster will have an impact in 2020.

The tight end position, seemingly in a constant state of uncertainty, once again raises issues. Jason Witten’s stunning return last year ended anticlimactically, putting both player and team in an awkward spot. The soon to be 38-year-old intends to continue playing, even if it’s for another team. Witten’s comments prompted Jerry Jones to publicly lobby for his return, seemingly reversing course from what McCarthy’s earlier statements inferred.

If Witten eventually returns for a 17th season and occupies a roster spot, what would that look like for Dallas? It’s almost impossible to say, even with returning OC Kellen Moore. But a look around the league suggests there are ways to make it work, so long as everyone is on the same page.

A Look Back

The most obvious drawback to bringing back Witten is how limited his production figures to be. Last season, Witten set near-career lows across the board, yet he was still one of the team’s most-played offensive players. He played over 75% of the team’s offensive snaps, ranking third in receptions (63), and tying WR Randall Cobb for third-most targets (83).

Witten averaged a career-low 8.4 yards per reception, his fifth consecutive season of decline. His backup, restricted free agent Blake Jarwin, averaged 11.8 per catch.

Jarwin, Amari Cooper (15.1 ypc), Michael Gallup (16.8 ypc), Randall Cobb (15.1 ypc) and even little-used Devin Smith (22.6 ypc) all set career highs for average yards in the same offense.

Did Jason Garrett feel obligated to play him, or did he actually believe keeping Witten on the field gave the Cowboys the best chance of winning? And what are the chances McCarthy feels the same way?

For what it’s worth, both Witten and McCarthy have expressed a desire to do what’s needed for Dallas to win a championship. In his return last year, Witten proclaimed the “fire inside of me to compete and play this game is just burning too strong”. He believed he could contribute and make a difference, yet also seemed open to a limited role.

He did make some plays here and there, but he also didn’t play fewer than 37 snaps in any 2019 game. Perhaps McCarthy wants to start completely fresh at the TE position, but it doesn’t take an analytics reawakening to discover Witten plainly was on the field too much last season. If Jones keeps Witten in the building, there are ways for McCarthy and Moore to make it work-perhaps even by simply adjusting how they deploy their personnel.

What kind of role could Witten have in 2020?

A glimpse at the Baltimore Ravens might provide a useful blueprint for how Dallas could manage their TEs in 2020.

A key to the Ravens unique No. 1 ranked offense by DVOA was their three-headed tight end unit. Each of Mark Andrews, Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst had a role to play within the Baltimore offense, and the workload was spread relatively evenly (percentage of offensive snaps: Andrews 41%, Hurst 41%, Boyle 70%).

The Cowboys’ TE snap distribution last year is much more dramatic. Witten’s usage (845 snaps) nearly doubled Blake Jarwin’s (434), and noted run blocker Dalton Shultz received just over 10% of the team’s snaps (117). That disparity and over-reliance on Witten likely held Dallas’s burgeoning offense back, and could unlock a new layer next season.

Also notable is how often the Cowboys utilized 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end). Dallas lined up this way on 61% of their offensive plays. 11 personnel was also the Ravens most-used offensive grouping, but they were only in it 44% of the time.

Baltimore put multiple TEs (and multiple running backs) on the field much more frequently than the Cowboys did in 2019. While 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) was the second-most used grouping by Dallas (22%), it wasn’t nearly enough considering Witten was dominating so much of the playing time. Who knows what the dynamics were last year, but if Witten is honest about wanting to best contribute to the team, a percentage of his snaps must be reallocated to Jarwin and Schutlz. Even just utilizing more two-TE sets would help alleviate the logjam.

Witten still possesses a useful skillset that’s hard to replicate. His acceleration and quickness is basically gone, yet Witten is regularly able get open and create space. He’s also an enormous and reliable target for Prescott that smaller linebackers and corners sometimes struggle to contain. At this stage of his career, Witten is a natural red-zone weapon and could prove invaluable as the field get smaller. But his days of being a pillar of the offense are likely over, as his presence holds the offense back rather than pushes it forward.

As with most things Cowboys-related, it’s a complicated situation. This is a team historically resistant to change entering unknown waters, so maybe it shouldn’t be shocking to see a franchise icon in Witten move on to another team. But given the market and his recent production, perhaps a reunion and truly reduced role is the best play for all involved.

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