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As No. 18 Michigan heads to No. 21 Minnesota to open the season with a primetime, ranked-on-ranked matchup, there’s a series of questions about the Wolverines ability to beat a ranked team on the road. But that doesn’t exactly tell the story for the maize and blue under head coach Jim Harbaugh.
Looking exclusively at ranked-on-ranked matchups, Michigan has played in 22 such games in the Jim Harbaugh era, and is 9-13 in those games. Twice Michigan has been a ranked team and lost to an unranked team in that span, as well.
Additionally, the Wolverines have been the lower-ranked team 12 times (3-9) and were favored to win five of those games heading in. Of the 10 ranked-on-ranked matchups that Michigan had the higher ranking, the maize and blue were favored in all but one of those games (6-4).
Let’s take a closer look.
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Lower ranked
It should be noted that in all three of Michigan’s wins against a higher-ranked team, Michigan was the odds-on favorite according to Bovada. But if you’re going by the rankings, the Wolverines were considered to be worse than their opponent each of the following weeks.
All three of Michigan’s wins came at home (2015 Northwestern, 2019 Iowa and Notre Dame) whereas the rest were either on the road or at a neutral site in a bowl game.
That said, there are no losses included here where Michigan was anything more than a one-score favorite.
| Year | Mich. Rank | Opp. Rank | Opponent | Location | Result | Favorite |
| 2015 | NR | 22 | BYU | Home | W 31-0 | MICH -6.5 |
| 2015 | 18 | 13 | Northwestern | Home | W 38-0 | MICH -10 |
| 2015 | 12 | 7 | Michigan State | Home | L 23-27 | MICH -7 |
| 2015 | 10 | 7 | Ohio State | Home | L 13-42 | OSU -1 |
| 2016 | 3 | 2 | Ohio State | Away | L 27-30 (2OT) | OSU -4.5 |
| 2017 | 19 | 2 | Penn State | Away | L 13-42 | PSU -7.5 |
| 2017 | 24 | 5 | Wisconsin | Away | L 10-24 | WISC -7 |
| 2018 | 14 | 12 | Notre Dame | Away | L 17-24 | MICH -3 |
| 2019 | 19 | 14 | Iowa | Home | W 10-3 | MICH -4.5 |
| 2019 | 16 | 7 | Penn State | Away | L 21-28 | PSU -8.5 |
| 2019 | 19 | 8 | Notre Dame | Home | W 45-14 | MICH -1 |
| 2019 | 13 | 1 | Ohio State | Home | L 27-56 | OSU -9.5 |
| 2019 | 14 | 13 | Alabama | Neutral | L 16-35 | ALA -8.5 |
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Higher ranked
This week features a game where Michigan is more highly-ranked than its opponent and it’s favored — and the game is on the road. Of past games that the Wolverines have seen all three criteria, Michigan is 1-1, with a win in 2018 over MSU, but a loss that same year against Ohio State.
The Wolverines do have two losses here where they lost to an unranked opponent (2016 Iowa, 2017 MSU). They also are 2-2 in neutral site games with two wins and a loss vs. Florida and the 2016 Orange Bowl, when it lost to Florida State.
| Year | Mich. Rank | Opp. Rank | Opponent | Location | Result | Favorite |
| 2015 | 14 | 19 | Florida | Neutral | W 41-7 | MICH -3.5 |
| 2016 | 4 | 8 | Wisconsin | Home | W 14-7 | MICH -11 |
| 2016 | 3 | NR | Iowa | Away | L 14-13 | MICH -24 |
| 2016 | 6 | 11 | Florida State | Neutral | L 32-33 | MICH -7 |
| 2017 | 11 | 17 | Florida | Neutral | W 33-17 | MICH -4 |
| 2017 | 7 | NR | Michigan State | Hone | L 10-14 | MICH -12 |
| 2018 | 12 | 15 | Wisconsin | Home | W 38-13 | MICH -9.5 |
| 2018 | 6 | 24 | Michigan State | Away | W 21-7 | MICH -7 |
| 2018 | 5 | 14 | Penn State | Home | W 42-7 | MICH -12 |
| 2018 | 4 | 10 | Ohio State | Away | L 39-62 | MICH -4.5 |
| 2018 | 7 | 10 | Florida | Neutral | L 15-41 | MICH -4 |
| 2019 | 11 | 13 | Wisconsin | Away | L 14-35 | WISC -3.5 |
Conclusions
Of the games that Michigan has been favored, specifically in ranked-vs.-ranked matchups, the Wolverines are 6-3 when they have a higher ranking than their opponent and 3-2 when they are ranked lower.
When Michigan isn’t favored, unsurprisingly, it’s 0-8.
Outside of the ranked-on-ranked matchups, Michigan is 39-4 when one of the teams is ranked and the other isn’t. The losses are the aforementioned Iowa and MSU games as well as Harbaugh’s first game as Wolverines head coach at Utah and the 2017 Outback Bowl against South Carolina. Michigan has one win where it was unranked and beat a ranked team — 2015’s 31-0 romp over BYU.
The argument that Michigan struggles against ranked opponents, at least when it’s ranked, doesn’t paint the entire picture. Additionally, the ‘Harbaugh can’t win big games on the road’ also paints the picture that Michigan was the better team or had a better chance to succeed in those games. If anything, the question should be reframed: do the Wolverines particularly struggle as the underdog, according to Vegas odds? The answer to that is yes, and it’s not exclusive to the road. Michigan is 10-5 when playing a ranked opponent in which it is favored and 0-8 when it is not.
As far as this Saturday’s game against Minnesota is concerned, there’s no clear answer. This one could go the way of 2018 Michigan State or it could be like 2018 Ohio State.
Nonetheless, there isn’t a particular ‘big game issue’ plaguing Jim Harbaugh & co.