On Sunday, the 13-3 Green Bay Packers will host the 12-5 Seattle Seahawks. If history is any indicator, this game could be another weird one. Between the Fail Mary, Brandon Bostick, fake punts and fourth-quarter collapses, there always seems to be something different when these two teams face off.

But if history is any indicator, the Packers will win.

In the last eight matchups between the Packers and Seahawks, the home team has come away with the victory each time. 2009 was the last time a visiting team won. Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a 48-10 victory over the Seahawks quarterbacked by Matt Hasselbeck.

Let’s start with some numbers.

Team defense rankings:

Yards: Packers – 18th, Seahawks – 26th
Rushing yards (per rush): Packers – 24th, Seahawks – 28th
Pass yards allowed: Packers – 14th, Seahawks – 27th
Points allowed: Packers – 9th, Seahawks – 22nd
Efficiency (DVOA): Packers 5th, Seahawks – 8th

Team offense rankings:

Yards: Packers – 18th, Seahawks – 8th
Points: Packers – 15th, Seahawks – 9th
Efficiency (DVOA): Packers 15th, Seahawks – 18th

Cutting through the rankings, the biggest variable is Russell Wilson, who was a borderline MVP during the first half of the season. He’s tapered off to a degree after a hot start, but he’s played better football this year than Aaron Rodgers, and no player is more important to a team than a hot quarterback. Just ask the ’16 Packers.

Another important note is health. While the Packers have been one of the healthiest teams in the league this year, the Seahawks have been hit with a series of injuries (especially lately). Several preferred starters or heavy contributors are on injured reserve, including starting running back Chris Carson and tight end Will Dissly. They may also be without key starters depending on how the week’s injury report shakes out. Left tackle Duane Brown didn’t practice Wednesday and defensive end Ziggy Ansah was listed as limited.

A key factor in this game is going to come down the Packers’ capacity limit the “explosives,” as Mike Pettine likes to call them. Receivers D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett complicate matters; both have excellent straight-line speed. If Wilson has time in the pocket, he’s one of the best deep-ball throwers in the league. Provided the Seahawks’ penchant for running the football, they know they get a lot of eight-man boxes, and it’s off of those situations that they take a shot downfield.

The Packers will also need to have a plan for Wilson. He looks and plays the quarterback position like a shortstop, throwing from odd angles with velocity and accuracy. Perhaps the most underrated part of Wilson’s game is his touch. He has an intuitive sense of velocity and arc when he throws, giving his receivers time to adjust and trusting them to make plays. The Packers cornerbacks need to play feisty at the catch point.

The Packers should be able to move the ball well enough to score points, and the defense has the players and team speed to hold the lead. To win, though, they just need to limit big plays.

On paper, the Packers are the more talented team. They can win this game. With home-field advantage, they should. Actually, doing it? That’s why we watch.

Film notes:

Jadeveon Clowney’s game is a lot like Za’Darius Smith’s. Against the run, he’s an apt slasher, crashing inside the tackle and down the line of scrimmage. In fact, he likes to attack leverage and try to win inside often. Clowney’s size and speed can be a problem for tackles. He’s not a traditional win-with-speed-and-bend edge rusher. Clowney’s been up and down this season. He’s wrecked games (at San Francisco), but he’s been a non-factor in others. Still, he’ll be the Packers’ top worry on the Seahawks’ defensive line.
Shaquem Griffin (No. 49) will line up on the edge as a pass rusher during obvious passing situations. He’s fast but undersized. As a result, he gets tossed around easily. It seems like the Seahawks don’t have great answers on the edge aside from Clowney.
Russell Wilson’s mobility additionally operates as additional pocket protection. Wilson’s natural feel for pressure means rushers need to maintain pass-rushing integrity or else he can escape the pocket for a big gain. Wilson fully understands the situation and reads coverage well; if he sees man coverage with defenders turning their backs, he’s apt to take off and take the free yardage. It’s only logical that the Packers will deploy a quarterback spy.
An additional note on Wilson: he’s made his money by blending athleticism and mobility with an accurate arm. While he still has all three, it looks like Wilson’s not as fleet of foot as he once was. He still demonstrates plenty of movement ability to evade pressure in the pocket and create – in fact, he’s one of the league’s best at second-reaction plays – placing a spy on him isn’t the fruitless exercise that placing a spy on prime-era Michael Vick or modern-day Lamar Jackson can be.
Seahawks running back Travis Homer, a 2019 sixth-round pick, has some juice in his game, but his vision and feel for the run lanes is iffy. He’s their pass-catching threat out of the backfield and is a willing blocker. He stood his ground Sunday against Fletcher Cox, enough for Wilson to deliver the ball. When there are lanes, Homer can get downfield in a hurry, as he did against San Francisco in Week 17; even so, Homer’s an easy tackle. The Packers need to respect his speed.
The Seahawks are a heavy zone team on defense. Shaquill Griffin is their best cornerback. Seattle’s corners more or less erased Philadelphia’s receiving corps (which has been an underwhelming unit all year).
“New” Seahawk Marshawn Lynch (signed just a few weeks ago) gives the Seahawks a boost of power between the tackles, but he’s not the Lynch of yore. “Beast Mode” still plays will excellent contact balance and a competent feel for rushing lanes, but he lacks explosion. The Seahawks purportedly are adding more responsibility for Lynch as he’s about to play in his third game, but he serves the team’s interests best as a between-the-tackles power back.
Seattle’s best on defense comes in the form of inside linebackers K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner. The latter is one of the best off-ball linebackers in football, possessing elite instincts and physical tools. Wright complements Wagner well, for they both show little lag between their initial read and their body movement. The Niners played Wagner and Wright’s aggression against them, utilizing a mix of jet motion, pulling linemen, and reverses to keep the duo honest. The Packers will need to stress Wagner and Wright’s eye discipline. Look for the Packers utilize the jet motion with Tyler Ervin.
Like the Packers, Seattle tries to scheme shot plays downfield. Unlike the Packers, they have a few more horses to accomplish it. Rookie receiver DK Metcalf has slowly expanded his repertoire as a receiver, adding production on comebacks, slants and out routes. He’s most lethal as a downfield threat, however. His 6-4 frame and 4.33 speed make for tough one-on-one battles. Wilson is one of the best touch throwers in football and often places enough loft on the ball to allow his receivers to adjust. The Packers will have to account for the downfield play-action throws. Look to see if the Seahawks add an additional lineman to max protect Wilson. These long-developing routes only happen if the Packers can’t move Wilson off his spot.
The Seahawks are now without Mychal Kendricks for the rest of the year and in his place is Cody Barton, a 2019 third-round pick out of Utah. A former safety, Barton may struggle in run support but provides perhaps a coverage upgrade over Kendricks. It’ll be interesting to see if the Packers test Barton with someone like Danny Vitale, who’s versatility will sooner or later burn a defense when he bluffs an isolation block on linebacker only to run down the seam.
Across the board, the Seahawks offensive line is OK. Right tackle Germaine Ifedi struggled mightily against Nick Bosa in Week 17, and it’s safe to expect much of them against the likes of Za’Darius Smith. Starting left tackle Duane Brown is hurt, and the interior guys struggled to handle Fletcher Cox last week. A healthy Kenny Clark could create havoc.
On the defensive side, the Seahawks’ line is built behind Poona Ford and Jarran Reed, both of whom are solid players who can clog rush lanes and shrink the pocket. They’re not homewreckers, however, which should give Aaron Rodgers time in the pocket. Aside from the aforementioned Jadeveon Clowney, the Packers should be able to trust their guys in one-on-one situations.