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The fun part of the internet era is that everyone with access has an opinion on what’s right or wrong with their particular football team. However, for fans, it’s certain to be a visceral, emotional response — and the same can be said for some writers.
I’ve been on-site for all of Michigan football’s 2020 games — from the resounding win vs. Minnesota, to the desolate vacuum of fun that existed in Saturday night’s devastating loss to Wisconsin. Likewise, I’ve seen plenty of Michigan’s opponents — before and after they’ve met. I’ve also been present for every single press conference, so I know what the coaches are saying — whether that means anything or not. Given the platitudes that tend to exist in the online sphere, I decided to key in on the broad themes that are troubling the Wolverines as of current.
So here’s what I see at this juncture.
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The line play has ranged from subpar to average on both sides of the ball
I won’t go as far as to say it’s been bad, but it’s been incredibly average most of the time and subpar at other times. Let’s look at each line, individually.
Offensive line
The offensive line looked incredible in Big Ten Week 1, blowing an inexperienced Minnesota team off the ball more often than not. Despite an early sack on QB Joe Milton, the Gophers didn’t get pressure often. However, in Week 2, Michigan State crowded the line and brought pressure on nearly every down. With four nominal new starters, what had appeared to be ahead of schedule ended up being right where they probably should have been, given the inexperience. The middle of the line with guard Chuck Filiaga and center Andrew Vastardis seemed particularly vulnerable after a week when they both shined. Injury was added to insult near the end of that game, as Michigan lost both tackles in Jalen Mayfield and Ryan Hayes. Against Indiana, it was more of the same, as QB Joe Milton appeared more rattled than he did even in his first loss as a starter against MSU.
The tackles were still out against Wisconsin, and the Badgers, as typical, weren’t pressure crazy. Instead, with their 3-4 defense, they plugged every running lane, and were so gap sound that neither the inside, nor the perimeter, were there for the taking for the Wolverines.
Without an above average offensive line — as Michigan had the past two seasons — the offense will never resemble the elite units in the college football world.
Defensive line
What’s happened to the offensive line is almost a perfect mirror on the defensive side of the ball. 5 sacks in Week 1 gave way to a two-plus week rift without much pressure. Also similar to the OL, the defense lost both ends to injury, with Aidan Hutchinson likely out the season and Kwity Paye having just missed the Wisconsin game.
As much as the secondary gets the headlines due to Michigan’s proclivity to give up long passing plays, Don Brown’s defense is entirely predicated on getting pressure on the QB and forcing errant throws. Without that, due to the nature of college football, a skilled receiver is going to be the benefactor of accurate 50/50 balls thrown his way. (We’ll get to the secondary issues later.) Teams have learned how to max protect or predict Michigan’s blitzes (which applies to the entire front seven or all-11, depending on the blitz), which has all but rendered the Wolverines defensive attack useless. Similar to the O-line, this unit hasn’t played bad, per se, but if there’s any position group that’s required to play above average on the defensive side of the ball, this is it. Michigan also doesn’t have a mistake-eraser behind the line, such as Devin Bush Jr., nor does it have a formidable player in the middle as it did with Mo Hurst Jr.
The D-line has been decidedly average as a group — though, before injury, both ends were playing above average, though the production doesn’t particularly show that. Without elite play from the DL, the Michigan defense starts to unravel.
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Coaching gaffes
Offense
The most puzzling happenstance after Week 1 has been the game plans on the offensive side of the ball. To some degree, it doesn’t matter what the game plan has been on defense if the aforementioned rush doesn’t get home. But on offense, it’s been filled with crucial mistakes.
After a near perfect plan against Minnesota, Michigan’s offensive braintrust was completely inexplicable in Week 2 against MSU and Week 3 against Indiana. Against Wisconsin, due to execution issues (more on that later), we never got to see whether or not the game plan was up to snuff. By the time the offense actually had the ball in-hand with a drive to sustain, it was already down by three scores — the game plan was out the window.
So what’s went wrong? Well, for starters, against MSU, despite the Spartans appearing vulnerable on the perimeter, Michigan was intent on running the ball up the middle on inside zone. Only two of the Wolverines’ four backs were having success, but the coaches kept changing personnel. There was no rhythm to go along with no rhyme nor reason. This was not endemic to Week 2 — in Week 1, after a 70-yard touchdown, Zach Charbonnet didn’t see another snap until over 30 minutes of game clock had gone by. Hassan Haskins is second in the conference at RB in yards-per-attempt, yet he gets less attempts than his fellow tailback cohort in the Big Ten. The maize and blue abandoned the run game altogether in Week 3. Michigan needs to settle on two backs as the primary talent and sprinkle in the other two as changes of pace in particular situations. But there’s no consistency, no feature back and the by-committee approach looks more haphazard than pretty much any by-committee tailback situation than I’ve seen at any level.
Likewise, the playcalling in general is not what it was in the latter half of the season. I’m still a fan of what Josh Gattis brings to the table from a theoretical standpoint, but in the past three games, Michigan has never appeared to be on schedule. Additionally, every week — save for Wisconsin — he’s made critical mistakes when it comes to utilizing the weapons in his arsenal. Joe Milton has a strong arm, but we’ve seen very few downfield attempts — partially due — likely — to the offensive line issues. But against Indiana, after two weeks of running the ball with relative success, the QB run was non-existent. Without utilizing his mobility and with the zone-read/RPO game seemingly on the table — and there’s a chance that Milton is getting asked to do these things and making the wrong reads in the limited times Michigan has utilized these concepts post-Week 1 — the Wolverines are limiting themselves. But why? We don’t know. It could be the general youth of the offense, the holes the defense has put it in or other. Regardless, the offense needs to be multiple.
But multiple doesn’t mean tricksy. Teams will use formational movement to get a defense to reveal itself, but Michigan’s offense appears to do it to try to outsmart the defense more than to recognize the foundational cracks. So often, the Wolverines motion and motion and motion pre-snap before running some kind of sweep or screen that gets blown up immediately. Whatever they’re showing the defense, it’s predictable enough to that side of the ball that they’re not fooled. If you have the talent Michigan has, you shouldn’t have to trick a defense as much as you should be able to beat it with the talent you have. Michigan is not doing that. That could speak, again, to youth or trust issues, but the unwillingness to line up, beat the unit across from it or letting the talent use — well — it’s talent, is itself an ignorance of the personnel and situational offense.
A good example of that is Hassan Haskins in as the wildcat QB in the goal line against MSU, or even running inside zone on the goal line with Joe Milton against Wisconsin. Michigan has speed-in-spades on offense, but attempts to act like it has bruising power. It doesn’t. It should live on the perimeter — even when that attack is stymied — because that’s what the personnel suggests it should do.
All-in-all, the coaching has been dumbfounding on the offensive side of the ball.
Defense
This is where we’ll talk about the secondary, but only momentarily. People clamor for zone coverage, but Michigan has run that plenty. What happens is that offenses can recognize when there is zone coverage and that’s when they hit players underneath for big gains.
I want to be clear: Dax Hill and Brad Hawkins — along with Paye and Hutchinson — have been, if there are any, the bright spots defensively. Vincent Gray struggled at corner from Weeks 1-3, and Gemon Green struggled Weeks 2-4. Man coverage has been a debacle only because the aforementioned players completely eschew their technique and fundamentals at times. There are countless plays — long passes or shorter touchdown throws — where either have been in a position to make a play, and hasn’t. As much as I feel like Don Brown deserves the bulk of the blame for the defensive miscues across the board, inexperience here certainly plays a big factor. Gemon Green wasn’t even under consideration for a starting position until Ambry Thomas opted out and stayed opted out. But, given that injuries or other unexpected things can happen, the coaches have to have contingencies — and that means having the unit better prepared.
But, like I stated above, if the D-line isn’t getting pressure, it allows for these things to happen on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive backs at any skill level are going to get exposed when a capable QB has enough time to throw to a capable WR. Mix in the technique/fundamental issues, and there’s bound to be even more lapses.
Brown tried to dial up pressure against Indiana by jumping the snap, and it resulted in numerous offside penalties — meaning: free plays for the opposing offense. Twice that resulted directly in touchdowns. Against Wisconsin, Michigan actually had the snap count timed well — but it showed its hand enough for the Badgers to know where the pressure was coming from, and it would always move the action of the play away from the pressure, rendering it moot.
On this note, Brown has become entirely too predictable, and clearly doesn’t have the horses across the board to simply ‘line up and dominate.’ Earnest self-scouting could fix this issue, but there’s been no indication that any changes will work. After all, Michigan’s more intensive use of zone coverage over the past year-plus hasn’t garnered much of a positive result.
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Self-inflicted wounds
Coaching, in and of itself at the moment, is a self-inflicted wound. But there’s been more than that. Every penalty on either side of the ball has been particularly ill-timed. As have the turnovers — or lack thereof, defensively.
Missed interceptions have resulted in touchdowns. Offsides (free plays) have resulted in touchdowns. Penalties defensively have extended drives which have resulted in touchdowns. Offensive penalties have negated a handful of plays and killed drives — though it hasn’t been nearly as common. Questionable playcalling has put the offense behind schedule, more often than not, which has had a more tangible effect. Dropped balls by receivers and tight ends have not only resulted in stalled drives, but interceptions by the opposition.
Against MSU, Michigan more stopped itself than the Spartans had. Against Indiana, take away the penalties, and the Wolverines are at least within a fighting chance to win. Michigan never had a chance against Wisconsin, as Joe Milton threw two picks — both of which led to Badgers touchdowns –before even completing a pass. The first wasn’t his fault, though you could argue it was a tight window. But a ball that hits a receiver — in this case, TE Nick Eubanks — in the hands must be caught, not tipped in the air. The second one was all on Milton.
More often than not, it’s Michigan taking the wind out of its own sails than the opposition. But now that it’s done it time and time again, the group is getting more downtrodden, expecting eventual failure rather than success. The mental part of the game is taking an enormous toll on the physical side.
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Verdict
There’s a lot of body language readers out there as of late, and while they’re not wrong that it’s a sign of trouble, it’s less a sign of future trouble and more a sign of current issues. It doesn’t take a rocket surgeon to recognize that the team is struggling and assuredly the team is well aware of that, and that’s been internalized at this point. The only way to get back on the winning side of things is exactly what Jim Harbaugh said a week ago: play-by-play. That includes in practice.
Self-scouting is important, of course, as well. Recognizing what you do well and what your identity is should create a focal point to center the attack around. It hasn’t thus far. Nor has Michigan seemingly attempted to attack the opposing teams’ weaknesses. As I’ve said for two weeks now, too often, Michigan has appeared to think it’s the smartest in the room, or has been prepared to bully teams by doing something it’s had no success at against that team’s strength.
While Joe Milton had his worst game this week — Cade McNamara provided an exciting spark while Michigan was down 35-3 on Saturday night — he hasn’t been the problem. Without solid line play, a cohesive plan to let a small handful of players shine in the run game — assuming Michigan actually attempts to run the ball — and letting the talent do what it does best, at any position, the team will continue to fail.
Finding a way to stick a square peg into a round hole and making it work is engineering. But you have to be able to learn that art, instead of studying art and proclaiming yourself an engineer. The bulk of Michigan’s problems are theoretically correctable, but in the past three weeks, it’s shown little-to-no desire to correct said problems. It’s doubled down on them, even. The lack of spring ball and non-conference opponents — though that’s a problem affecting literally all teams — may be part of a hindrance to an overall young team. But if the coaches could get out of their own heads, the players could be put into situations where they could play instinctively — and actually rely on their talents instead of themselves overthinking — then there’s a chance for a turnaround.
And a turnaround is what Michigan fans should be hoping for. Not failure and firings. Sure, some assistant-level coaches could (maybe should) be casualties, but the benefits from a wholesale change could be largely outweighed by the overall losses to the current personnel and recruiting classes. We’re already midseason. Let it play its course and then see what decisions are being made.
Let the amateur engineers go back to math class and see if they can catch back up with five games left on the schedule.