The Rams saw the tweets. They saw the memes. They saw the charts. More importantly, they saw the Seahawks had been listening to their fans and, as has been well documented, they had started to “Let Russ Cook.”
What started out as a plea from one disgruntled Seahawks fan early last season quickly evolved into a hashtag and then into a full-fledged meme on NFL Twitter this past offseason. Then the Seahawks … listened to Twitter? (Usually a very bad strategy, it should be noted.) After a decade-long marriage to a frustratingly outdated run-first philosophy, Seattle has become the league’s most pass-happy team. Much to the delight of the mutated sect of social media known as Seahawks Twitter, the team was finally letting Russell Wilson cook.
I’m skeptical that Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer actually gave in to the pressure put on them by Seahawks fans on the internet, but it sure seems that way. Just two years ago, Seattle had the league’s lowest pass rate on early downs … in 2020, they’re at the top of the NFL:
With a license to cook, Wilson got off to a hot start and was leading the MVP discussion as recently as two weeks ago. But things have taken a bit of a turn over the last two games, both losses to playoff contenders. Wilson has turned the ball over seven times over that stretch, which has led to questions about the efficacy of the “Let Russ Cook” approach over the long haul.
After a 23-16 loss to the Rams, Carroll publicly stated his desire for the offense to be more “balanced.”
Via 710 AM ESPN:
“We have to get back to mixing our stuff and back to balance so we’re not just relying on the throwing game where they can keep calling their stuff to get after you and cover you more aggressively because they don’t have to respect the run as much.”
Do you hear that? That’s the sound of a million Seahawks fans rolling their eyes. And they have reason to roll those eyes. Seattle is leading the league in points scored, so any shift in philosophy feels like an overreaction. Carroll, after all, wasn’t this quick to demand a change when the run-run-pass approach was actively costing his team wins.
I know I scoffed when I saw that quote on Monday. But after reviewing the film of Seattle’s loss to the Rams, I’m much more sympathetic to Carroll’s point of view.
Struggling against this Rams defense isn’t the most shameful thing in the world. Los Angeles leads the NFL in EPA allowed. It ranks eighth in Defensive DVOA. And only the Ravens have allowed fewer points per game. The results are impressive but it’s how Brandon Staley has gone about getting those results that has grabbed the attention of NFL analysts everywhere.
Last month, Pro Football Focus’ Seth Galina wrote about Staley’s “almost collegiate” approach to calling defense and chalked up the success to his willingness to concede numbers in the run game in order to better defend the pass.
Galina pointed to the Rams’ use of three-man defensive lines, with the linemen packed inside the tackles clogging up the interior run gaps and forcing ball carriers out to faster players on the edges of the defense. With fewer defenders in the box, the Rams can allocate more resources to coverage and those extra numbers have allowed the secondary to bracket receivers and cut off crossing routes and basically better defend all of the concepts that have allowed offenses to get so far out ahead of defenses over the last decade or so.
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While Staley applied that overall philosophy to his game plan for Seattle, largely ditched those packed, three-man lines. Instead, he called the kinds of fronts you expect to see in obvious passing situations — even when it wasn’t an obvious passing situation. This, for instance, is a second-and-3 play…
Look at all those open run gaps!
This is on third-and-4; the Rams are just begging the Seahawks to run up the middle…
But at this juncture, Staley’s approach makes sense. Given how the Seahawks have been calling plays on early downs, even first-and-10 can be considered an obvious passing down…
The nerds have proven that teams should be throwing more on early downs, but that’s also based on the way football has long been played, where coaches prefer to run on early downs and defenses are rightfully wary of the run on first and second down. Defensive coordinators regularly sacrifice pass rush, coverage or both on early downs in order to be firm against the run. When offenses do drop back to pass on early downs, they’re doing it against straight-forward coverages that even the greenest of passers can diagnose and exploit.
So, in theory, there could be a point of diminishing returns on a higher early-down pass rate. If defenses adjust accordingly, the advantage lessens. Because the edge comes from doing what the defense is not set up specifically to stop.
We may have seen that play out on Sunday in Los Angeles. I mean, look at these fronts the Rams were playing…
Those are some inviting run looks, but Seattle kept on passing and posted the fifth-highest early-down pass rate of the week, per RBSDM.com. They didn’t just Let Russ Cook, they Insisted Russ Cook. The results were not great: Wilson posted season-lows in just about every useful metric, including QBR, EPA and PFF grade.
We know that passing in obvious passing situations is more difficult than passing in situations where the threat of the run is stronger. That’s why passing efficiency is at its highest on first down and at its lowest on third down.
And Wilson’s own performance has followed that same trend this season.
Russell Wilson's PFF passing grade by down
First: 91.8 (1st)
Second: 85.7 (5th)
Third: 54.0 (28th)
Fourth: 95.0 (1st)— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) November 17, 2020
But I’m not sure the element of surprise (or the lack thereof) fully explains that trend. As I alluded to earlier, defenses are just a lot more complex on third down. The fronts are more exotic, the pressures are harder to pick up and the coverages are more complex. It’s just a more uncomfortable environment for the quarterback. By treating first and second down more like third down, Staley made things were very uncomfortable for Wilson on Sunday. And you can see how that affected him. He missed open receivers…
He failed to recognize pressures and make the necessary adjustments to the protection…
The Seahawks Let Russ Cook, but the Rams knew it was coming and turned the heat up in the kitchen and in some ways erased the advantage those boisterous Seahawks fans wanted to exploit.
Now I’m not suggesting we’ve reached a tipping point, or even equilibrium when it comes to run-pass balance. And I’m most certainly not suggesting that Seattle should revert to their old ways. Offenses should be passing more than they already are; that still stands. But I do think Staley’s approach against the Seahawks shows us that there is a limit to this and we’re getting close to that limit.
The Rams’ win over Seattle might have exposed a flaw in the way the nerds have approached the problem, which has been from the offense’s point of view with little regard for how defenses are adapting to different situations. We can say passing is more efficient on early downs based on what we’ve seen in the past, but that is heavily influenced by how defenses play when they have to acknowledge the threat of the run.
If the nerds do win and NFL teams across the league follow their prescription, we could see more gameplans like the one the Rams employed on Sunday, which could tip the scales of efficiency back toward the run a bit.