In the pantheon of heartbreaking hypothetical scenarios in recent Green Bay Packers postseason history, the questions “What if Brandon Bostick let Jordy Nelson catch the onside kick?” and “What if the Packers went for two after the Hail Mary to Jeff Janis?” can now be joined by this: “What if David Bakhtiari had been available during the Packers’ last two playoff runs?”
It’s certainly possible one injury cost the Packers two real shots at playing in the Super Bowl.
Bakhtiari, the five-time All-Pro left tackle, missed losses to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship Game last season and the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Divisional Round this season after tearing his ACL in practice on Dec. 31 of 2020 and then going through a “nightmare” recovery now spanning over 13 months.
First, let’s establish three things: Bakhtiari might be the game’s best pass-blocking left tackle, Aaron Rodgers was the NFL’s best passer from clean pockets each of the last two seasons, and pressure played a major factor in losses to both the Buccaneers and 49ers.
The natural conclusion: Having Bakhtiari available at left tackle would have provided more opportunities for Rodgers playing from clean pockets, less empty or negative plays due to pressure, and a better overall performance from the NFL’s most valuable player at the game’s most valuable position.
Before his injury, Bakhtiari had played 446 pass-blocking snaps in 2020 and allowed all of nine pressures, per Pro Football Focus. Nine. He is (or was, pre-injury) the gold standard for pass-blocking blindside protectors.
Also in 2020, Rodgers led the NFL in passing touchdowns (40) and passer rating (129.1) from clean pockets.
But against the Buccaneers, Rodgers was under pressure on 30.2 percent of his dropbacks and took five sacks. He was terrific from clean pockets – completing 75.7 percent of his passes, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and throwing all three of his touchdown passes – but he crumbled under pressure, completing just five of 11 passes for 40 yards.
Obviously, Bakhtiari didn’t play. Billy Turner started at left tackle and Rick Wagner at right tackle. Neither played well. In fact, they each gave up two sacks apiece. Bucs edge rushers Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett were game-changing players, producing 12 pressures and all five of the sacks.
The Buccaneers held on for a 31-26 win. But remember: the Packers had a pair of chances to take the lead in the fourth quarter but went three-and-out each time, and pressure played a role on each possession.
One opportunity missed. Moving on.
In 2021, Rodgers completed an NFL-best 77.1 percent of his passes, tossed 29 touchdown passes (and just one interception) and led all quarterbacks in passer rating (123.7) from clean pockets.
But once again, pressure helped submarine the playoff run short of the Super Bowl. The 49ers had Rodgers under pressure on 35.3 percent of his dropbacks (a season-high) and sacked him five times. The efficiency split between clean pockets and under pressure wasn’t as drastic in this game, but Rodgers’ 12 dropbacks under pressure still produced only 29 net passing yards.
Once again, Bakhtiari didn’t play, this time because his recovery hit another setback. The Packers had to change course and eventually reshuffled the line. Turner, who had played right tackle all season and was coming off a knee injury that kept him out the final four games, played left tackle. Veteran Dennis Kelly played right tackle, leaving Yosh Nijman on the bench. The results were much the same as a year prior. Edge rushers Nick Bosa and Samson Ebukam combined for eight pressures and three sacks, and neither Kelly nor Turner was effective in pass protection.
Again, Rodgers and the offense had a pair of chances to go down the field and either clinch the win or re-take the lead. Rodgers was sacked to end the first drive and did nothing on the second.
Make that two opportunities missed.
And now the hypothetical.
What if Bakhtiari and Turner had been the two offensive tackles against the Bucs and 49ers? Do the Packers go to the Super Bowl last year, and are they preparing to play the Rams this week for the right to go to the Super Bowl again?
We’ll never know, but it’s not difficult to search the imagination and come up with an affirmative answer.
Maybe the Bucs and 49ers would have still disrupted Rodgers and the Packers passing game with Bakhtiari on the field. Maybe the game-deciding issues ran deeper than just pressure and sacks.
Or maybe Bakhtiari’s injury – one of the most unfortunate injuries in recent team history – played a starring role in two heartbreaking playoff exits and robbed two Super Bowl-caliber Packers teams from getting over the hump and playing on the season’s final day.
Football is nothing if not a cruel game.