The Toronto Blue Jays (63-56) host the Detroit Tigers (58-65) Friday for the start of their three-game set at Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Tigers vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 0-0.
LHP Tyler Alexander is on the rubber for the Tigers. Alexander is 2-2 with a 4.57 ERA (65 IP, 33 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in eight starts and 24 relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 7-4, 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 4 K Aug. 13 against the Cleveland Indians.
- 2021 road splits: 1-0 with a 4.78 ERA (32 IP, 17 ER), 1.34 WHIP and 3.9 K/BB in three starts and 14 bullpen outings.
LHP Robbie Ray makes his 24th start for the Blue Jays. Ray is 9-5 with a 2.88 ERA (137 1/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 8 K in Toronto’s 3-2 loss Aug. 13 at the Seattle Mariners.
- 2021 home splits: 5-3 with a 2.82 ERA (67 IP, 21 ER), 1.05 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB in 11 starts.
Tigers at Blue Jays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:43 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Tigers +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Blue Jays -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +2.5 (-125) | Blue Jays -2.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Prediction
Tigers 6, Blue Jays 5
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the TIGERS (+230) for a tiny wager – if at all – because I like Detroit’s run line in this spot and this payout is far too chunky considering how awful Toronto’s bullpen has been since the All-Star Game.
The Tigers are 22-18 against left-handed starters and vs. 11-8 against AL East teams while the Blue Jays are just 15-17 against lefty starters.
A major reason for Toronto’s recent mediocrity is due to the struggles of its bullpen which ranks dead last in WAR and grades out worse than Detroit’s in SIERA, xFIP, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning rate in the second half of the season.
It’s not like Detroit’s relievers are lighting the world on fire but Toronto’s bullpen concerns give me a lot of confidence Detroit can either sneak in the backdoor late or steal this game outright.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET the TIGERS +2.5 (-125) heavier than or instead of Detroit’s money line for all the logic written above.
On top of that, the Blue Jays are just 11-12 ATS when Ray gets the start with a minus-10.4% return on investment (ROI) if you bet on their run line. In addition, the Tigers have a plus-76.8% ROI with a 7-1 ATS record in Alexander’s eight starts this season.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-105) for a half unit only because I much prefer the Detroit side more than the total in this contest.
Both teams play more to the over in their location-based situational trends, the Tigers are 7-2-1 O/U in their past 10 games and the Blue Jays are 8-2 O/U in their past 10 games.
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