The Detroit Tigers (60-66) stop by Busch Stadium Tuesday to begin a two-game interleague series with the St. Louis Cardinals (63-60) at 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Tigers vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Detroit won two of three games last weekend at the Toronto Blue Jays and is 4-6 in the last 10 games.
St. Louis lost two of three games against the Pittsburgh Pirates but is 6-4 in the last 10 games and is 4.5 games back of the second NL Wild Card berth.
Season series: Tigers lead 2-0.
RHP Casey Mize makes his 24th start for the Tigers. Mize is 6-6 with a 3.69 ERA (124 1/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 4 K in Detroit’s 8-2 loss to the Los Angeles Angels Aug. 17.
- August splits: 0-1 with a 6.08 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 16 H, 6 BB and 11 K in three starts.
RHP Jack Flaherty is St. Louis’s projected starter. Flaherty is 9-1 with a 2.68 ERA (74 IP, 22 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 13 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 8 K in St. Louis’s 6-4 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday.
- Home splits: 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA (31 IP, 6 ER), 0.74 WHIP and 5.5 K/BB across five starts.
Tigers at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:22 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Tigers +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Cardinals -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +1.5 (-108) | Cardinals -1.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Prediction
Cardinals 8, Tigers 2
Money line (ML)
PASS even though St. Louis is clearly the right side in this game because Cardinals (-250) is out of my price range.
All of St. Louis’s obvious edges are baked into this line and there’s no real value in backing the Cardinals in this spot.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the CARDINALS -1.5 (-112) for a half unit only because I am not crazy about betting a run line favorite in a game with a low total.
However, St. Louis is a lot more profitable on the run line in this spot than Detroit. The Tigers are 7-13 RL on the road as a +180 or greater money line underdog with a minus-30.0% return on investment (ROI). Whereas the Cardinals are 5-2 RL with a 38.2% ROI as a home favorite of -180 or more.
Also, St. Louis has tidied up its relief pitching following the All-Star Game. Through the first half of the season, the Cardinals were dead-last in SIERA, xFIP and K-BB%. But, in the second half, St. Louis’s bullpen is near the league average in those metrics.
Finally, we have significant sharp line movement on the Cardinals as their run line price opened at -1.5 (+115), according to Pregame.com, but has been steamed up to the current number.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-122) for a half unit because Mize has really struggled this month, Detroit’s bullpen is bottom 10 in WAR, xFIP and home run per nine-inning rate and the Cardinals are 8-3 O/U in Flaherty’s starts.
Furthermore, I’m okay fading the one-sided action on the Over because of Detroit’s questionable pitching staff and St. Louis’s lineup having the seventh-best WAR in August.
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