The Detroit Tigers (47-52) face the Kansas City Royals (40-55) Saturday at Kauffman Stadium for the second game of their three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 7-7.
RHP Casey Mize makes his 19th start for the Tigers. Mize is 5-5 with a 3.44 ERA (99 1/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB and 2 K in Detroit’s 14-0 win against the Texas Rangers Monday.
- Mize is 2-1 this season against K.C. with a 4.56 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.14 WHIP and 2.0 K/BB rate in four starts.
- vs. Royals on the current roster: 4.66 FIP with a .253 batting average, .316 wOBA, .388 expected slugging percentage, 12.1 K% and 86.5 mph exit velocity in 91 plate appearances.
RHP Carlos Martinez is on the rubber for the Royals. Martinez is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.60 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9 and 12.6 K/9 over one start and 12 relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-0, with 4 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 6 K Sunday against the Baltimore Orioles.
- 2021 home splits: 1-1 with a 3.68 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 13 H, 7 BB and 22 K in one start and six bullpen outings.
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Tigers at Royals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Tigers +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Royals -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +1.5 (-165) | Royals -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Royals 8, Tigers 5
Money line (ML)
Even though K.C.’s money line price could look out of whack since it just snapped Detroit’s seven-game winning streak, there is some value in the ROYALS (-135).
There has been “sharp, reverse line movement” as more than 80% of the public is backing the Tigers, but oddsmakers are moving the line in favor of K.C. as this game opened with the Royals priced at -105 on the money line (according to Pregame.com).
The reason for the presumed “sharp” line movement is because the Tigers are putting an innings restriction on Mize and Detroit’s bullpen is a bottom-10 unit across several advanced pitching categories.
Mize was dominant in his previous start, but the Tigers held to their plan and pulled Mize despite allowing only one hit and throwing just 54 pitches.
All of the Tigers’ seven-game winning streak happened at home and the Royals are 15-13 this year as home favorites. Plus, the Tigers are 19-30 as road underdogs.
The play is a “LEAN” to the ROYALS (-135) for a half unit.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because K.C. is just 12-16 ATS as a home favorite this season with a minus-1.3 run line margin. It’s too hard to envision how this game plays out since we should see a lot of each bullpen Saturday.
Over/Under (O/U)
I’m going to be a sheep, follow the herd and BET the OVER 10.5 (-105) for 1 unit because the market is hammering the Over despite a whole bunch of Under trends.
Typically, you don’t want to align with the public in sports betting, but there’s no way a bunch of square bettors are backing the Over in a July Tigers-Royals game.
However, the Royals are 17-10-1 O/U as home favorites this season, the Tigers are 25-21-3 O/U as road dogs and this could turn into a slugfest with both teams featuring their terrible bullpens most of the game.
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