The Houston Astros (14-11) host the Detroit Tigers (8-15) for the first of their 4-game series at Minute Maid Park Thursday with the first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Detroit split a doubleheader Wednesday with the Pittsburgh Pirates but was outscored 9-5 in those games. The Tigers are just 2-8 in their last 10.
Houston completed a 3-game sweep of the Seattle Mariners at home Wednesday and had a plus-13 run differential in the series. The Astros are 7-3 in their last 10.
The Tigers beat the Astros in last year’s regular-season series 5-2 and Detroit outscored Houston 30-25 in those meetings.
Tigers at Astros projected starters
LHP Tarik Skubal vs. LHP Jose Urquidy
Skubal (1-2, 3.05 ERA) lost at the Minnesota Twins 7-1 April 28, allowing 3 ER over 5 IP on 6 H and 2 BB with 4 K.
- 2021 vs. the Astros: No-decision in Detroit’s 2-1 win over 7 IP with 1 ER, 1 H, 3 BB and 9 K in June.
- vs. Astros on the current roster: 1.53 FIP with a .277 expected batting average (xBA), .345 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .331 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 29.4 K% and 102.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 17 plate appearances (PA).
Urquidy (2-1, 5.95 ERA) beat the Toronto Blue Jays 11-7 Friday, going 5 IP, surrendering 4 ER on 7 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 6 K.
- vs. Tigers on the current roster: 2.89 FIP with a .179 xBA, .290 xwOBA, .439 xSLG, 15.4 K% and 94.2 mph EV in 13 PA.
Tigers at Astros odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Tigers +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Astros -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-160) | Astros -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!
Tigers at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Tigers 3, Astros 2
Money line
LEAN to the TIGERS (+130) only because the Astros (-160) are 8-2 overall versus left-handed starters, and the Under is my favorite wager in this game.
But, Detroit is 4-1 overall in the last 5 visits to Houston, has an edge in the pitching matchup, and there’s reverse line movement (RLM) headed towards the Tigers in the betting market.
Skubal has the third-best FIP in baseball (1.59) with a minimum of 20 IP (per FanGraphs) and was filthy last season against the Astros.
Also, Detroit’s bullpen is better than Houston’s by FIP, WHIP, ERA and home runs allowed per 9 innings.
According to Pregame.com, nearly three-fourths of the money is on the Astros, but their consensus ML has been lowered quite a bit.
RLM should be a red flag for any sports bettor since it would make more sense for the oddsmakers to move the line according to their liability.
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 6/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!
Run line/Against the spread
PASS because the Tigers +1.5 (-160) is too expensive considering they are 3-4 RL as road underdogs this season, and the Astros -1.5 (+130) are 4-3 RL as home favorites.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 8.5 (-120) because Detroit’s lineup struggles vs. right-handed pitching, six or more rest days is Skubal’s best rest split by ERA and WHIP, and the Under is more expensive even though most of the betting action is on the Over, per Pregame.
Also, Houston is 6-12 O/U as favorites with a minus-1.6 total margin, Detroit is 7-11 O/U as underdogs and 0-4 O/U in Skubal’s last 4 starts on 6 or more days of rest. Urquidy’s pitching stats are bloated because his first 4 starts this season were against three of baseball’s best lineups.
For the record, the UNDER 8.5 (-120) is my best bet in this contest.
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]