On Monday evening, the Denver Nuggets (4-2) will visit the Memphis Grizzlies (3-3) The game is scheduled to tip at 8 p.m. ET and will be held at FedExForum. Below, we look at the Nuggets at Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Coming into the game, the Nuggets are led by reigning MVP C Nikola Jokic. While there was some concern when he landed awkwardly a few games ago, his name did not appear on the injury report.
Without PG Jamal Murray, the Nuggets have leaned to solid scoring options like PG Austin Rivers, SG Will Barton and SF Michael Porter Jr.
They’ll be taking on an up-and-coming Grizzlies team, led by potential MVP candidate PG Ja Morant. Morant is playing out of his mind, scoring 28.7 points per game while also notching 7.7 assists per game.
He has taken the leap into superstardom this season. With PF Jaren Jackson Jr. as his right-hand man, expect them to put up a strong challenge against Denver.
Nuggets at Grizzlies odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Nuggets +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Grizzlies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +1.5 (-107) | Grizzlies -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Nuggets at Grizzlies key injuries
Nuggets
- PG Jamal Murray (left knee) out
Grizzlies
- SG Dillon Brooks (left hand) out
Nuggets at Grizzlies odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 110, Grizzlies 106
Money line
BET on the NUGGETS +102 as great value on the money line.
The Nuggets have a complete roster. With international veteran PG Facundo Campazzo able to get in opposing players’ heads, he might get the Morant assignment early.
Campazzo should be able to do a good job there. However, the real reason Denver has the edge is Jokic against their bigs. C Steven Adams isn’t going to be capable of slowing Jokic down.
Also, the Nuggets rank 7th in defensive rebounding rate, canceling out Memphis’ top-of-the-league offensive rebounding rate. Expect the Nuggets to be able to quench the Grizzlies’ dominance on the glass.
The Grizzlies rank bottom five in the league in defensive rating. The Nuggets hung 110 on the Suns, the worst defense by rating they’ve faced. They’ve yet to face a defense that is among the bottom eight.
The Nuggets should be able to feast on a lacking Memphis defense while just hoping to contain Morant with a pesky defender like Campazzo.
Against the spread
PASS on the spread with a lean to the Nuggets at +1.5.
I’m not a big fan of getting one point when the money line offers plus-money odds. There has been one 1-point game in the NBA’s last 23. While this one may be close, I’d still look for better value on the money line.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 215.5 (-108) as both teams have highly lethal scorers, and this game could easily be a high-scoring showdown.
With Jokic an all-around threat for Denver, his presence should help Porter Jr. and Barton find their range.
While the Nuggets do rank in the bottom half of the league in pace, they haven’t needed to play outside of their style often, ranking 3rd in field goal percentage. They’ve struggled to start the season but ranked 8th in points per game at 115.1 with a similar roster.
As for Memphis, they’re thriving and rank third in field goal attempts. The Grizzlies get after the glass as well, ranking first in offensive rebounding rate.
Given how well they crash the glass, I expect their second-chance points, which they rank 4th in, could help boost their score, especially if they have to play from behind.
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