The Denver Nuggets (42-21) drop by Staples Center Saturday for their regular-season rubber match against the Los Angeles Clippers (43-21). Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Nuggets-Clippers odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Denver has won four straight games and eight of its last nine games but is only 4-5 against the spread (ATS) in those contests.
The Nuggets are still in contention for home-court advantage throughout the postseason, as they are just 3 games back of the Western Conference’s first-place Utah Jazz with nine games remaining.
L.A., is a half-game in front of Denver despite dealing with injury issues all season. The Clippers lost two straight games following a four-game winning streak and are just 2-4 ATS over the past two weeks.
These teams split their first two regular-season meetings with the road team winning and covering each game. This is a budding rivalry since the Nuggets came back from a 3-1 series deficit to stun the Clippers in last season’s Western Conference Semifinals.
Nuggets at Clippers: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Nuggets +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Clippers -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nuggets +4.5 (-110) | Clippers -4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 222.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Nuggets at Clippers: Key injuries
Nuggets
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
- SG Will Barton (hamstring) out
- PG Monte Morris (hamstring) out
Clippers
- SF Kawhi Leonard (foot) questionable
- PG Patrick Beverley (hand) out
- PF Serge Ibaka (back) out
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Nuggets at Clippers: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Nuggets 113, Clippers 108
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the NUGGETS (+155) because Leonard’s game status is still up in the air and each team is in the top-5 of net rating but Denver has played better against quality competition than L.A.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Nuggets are 10-8 with the fifth-best net points per 100 possessions and the fourth-best ATS margin vs. teams in the top-10 of net rating. The Clippers are 10-10 with the sixth-best net points per 100 possessions and the 19th-best ATS margin in those spots
Also, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Nuggets attempt the ninth-highest volume of mid-range field goals and the Clippers are 19th in defensive field-goal percentage on mid-range attempts.
Furthermore, L.A., is the top 3-point shooting team in the Association but Denver is ninth in defensive 3-point percentage.
If Leonard plays, I’m for sure passing on Denver’s money line, but at the moment, I’ll sprinkle on the NUGGETS (+155).
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Against the spread (ATS)
BET NUGGETS +4.5 (-110) for 1 unit for the aforementioned reasons and because Denver is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with L.A., going back to last season’s playoffs.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 222.5 (-105) for one-third of a unit because both teams are in the bottom-5 of pace, the Under is 10-1 in Denver’s last 11 road games and 4-0 in L.A.’s last four overall.
I wouldn’t bet the Under too hard in Nuggets-Clippers, however, because Denver is sixth in effective field-goal percentage and L.A., is third.
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