The Denver Nuggets (1-3) visit the Chase Center Wednesday to take on the Golden State Warriors (3-1). Tip-off for the Western Conference first-round playoff game is 10 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
The Warriors lost for the first time in the series in Game 4, dropping the ball despite being tied late. F Draymond Green fouled out with minutes to go and Denver pulled away following a turnover on an out-of-bounds play.
The Warriors were one of two teams, Philadelphia the other, that couldn’t close out the series after going up 3-0. Denver won 126-121 as reigning MVP, and the current favorite for MVP, Nikola Jokic scored 37 points.
The difference for the Nuggets in Game 4 was that 3 other players went for 15 points or more. The Nuggets will need that help again if they hope to extend the series. Denver is 12-11 against the spread (ATS) as a road underdog.
Golden State has been incredible at home this season, ending with the second-best home record. The Warriors are 22-16-2 ATS as home favorite, the seventh-best covering rate in the league.
Nuggets at Warriors odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:01 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Nuggets +340 (bet $100 to win $340) | Warriors -475 (bet $475 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +8.5 (-107) | Warriors -8.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 225.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Nuggets at Warriors key injuries
Nuggets
- G Jamal Murray (knee) out
- F Michael Porter Jr. (spine) out
Warriors
- None
[tipico]
Nuggets at Warriors picks and predictions
Prediction
Warriors 120, Nuggets 113
Money line
PASS.
The Warriors have championship DNA and should be able to close the series out, but betting on them with a -475 tag doesn’t make much sense. Only Denver at +340 has value, but I’d still pass there.
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Against the spread
LEAN to the WARRIORS -8.5 (-115).
The Warriors looked like the better side through 3 games and were clearly the more dominant team on their home court. Golden State won its 2 home games by a combined 36 points, easily covering both.
The Nuggets shot 56% from the field in Game 4 and 48% from deep, both clearly above their season averages.
Given the Warriors have the second-best defense in the league in terms of opponents’ shooting efficiency, expect that Nuggets number to regress as they travel West to California.
The Nuggets led the league in effective shooting percentage, so the Warriors’ defense, which helped propel their 2 blowout wins, should be on deck in Game 5.
Over/Under
BET the OVER 225.5 (-110).
The Over is 4-0 in this series, and there’s not much reason to think it’ll change anytime soon.
The Warriors’ main lineup, one that features three All-Stars, G Klay Thompson and G Jordan Poole, should get plenty of run and has a 147.8 offensive rating, having played 32 minutes this series. Golden State scored 123 and 126 at home in the series.
As noted, the Nuggets were the best shooting team in the regular season so their efficient Game 4 was to no one’s surprise. Denver was also the league’s best shooting road team. They’ve topped 105 in every game and 110 twice.
Expect them to pull their weight in helping the over connect.
Also, these teams ranked 3rd (Warriors) and 13th (Nuggets) in 3-point field goal attempts during the regular season. They’re both going to look to pour it in from deep in Game 5.
Considering that and how this series has gone, I’d continue to back the OVER 225.5 (-110).
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