The Dallas Mavericks (8-8) host the Denver Nuggets (9-7) Monday at American Airlines Center for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Nuggets-Mavericks NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Denver is coming off back-to-back overtime victories at the Phoenix Suns, and has won four of its past five games (4-1 against the spread). The only loss in those five games was against a red-hot Utah Jazz team, which currently has won eight in a row.
The Mavericks have been and continue to deal with a myriad of COVID-19 issues that have caused several key contributors to miss time. Dallas is 2-3 over its past five games (2-3 ATS), and was drubbed 133-108 at home by the Houston Rockets as a 7-point favorite Saturday.
Dallas fought back from a 12-point, third-quarter deficit to force overtime in a 124-117 win at Denver in their only meeting this season (Jan. 7). The Mavericks have covered four of their past five games against the Nuggets, including winning the last two (3-2 straight-up).
Nuggets at Mavericks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:11 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nuggets -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mavericks +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nuggets -1.5 (-110) | Mavericks +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 222.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Nuggets at Mavericks: Key Injuries
Nuggets
- None
Mavericks
- SF Dorian Finney-Smith (health and safety protocols) out
- PF Maxi Kleber (health and safety protocols) out
- C Dwight Powell (health and safety protocols) out
- SG Josh Richardson (health and safety protocols) out
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Nuggets at Mavericks: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Nuggets 118, Mavericks 110
Money line (ML)
Over their past five games, the Nuggets are dominating the paint and cleaning up the glass. Denver ranks second in rebounding percentage and points in the paint, first in second-chance points and T6 in opponent’s points in the paint.
Dallas has played poorly in similar areas. The Mavericks are bottom-10 in rebounding percentage and opponent’s points in the paint in their past five games. Also, Dallas’s defense looked to be much-improved from last season early on, however, the Mavericks are ranked 24th in defensive rating since Jan. 17.
A major reason for Dallas’s defensive struggles is because of its injury report and Denver is one of the healthiest teams in the Association. The Mavericks being without two defensive bigs, going against Nuggets C Nikola Jokic, who’s playing as well as anyone in the NBA, has bad news written all over it.
GIMME NUGGETS (-125) for 1.25 units.
Against the spread (ATS)
PASS ON THE SPREAD. Don’t be cheap, just pay the vig for a Denver outright victory.
Over/Under (O/U)
Because I am so down on Dallas’s defense at the moment and Denver just has so many ways it can score, I lean OVER 222.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit. Close to 90% of the money wagered is currently on the Over (according to Pregame.com) and each team is 3-0 O/U in its last three games.
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Also see:
- Remembering Kobe: His final interview, his death and his legacy (Hoops Hype)
- Hoops Hype rumors: Nuggets | Mavericks
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