The Cleveland Cavaliers (39-30) host the Denver Nuggets (42-28) Friday at the Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Cavaliers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Denver has won back-to-back road games — 114-110 at the Philadelphia 76ers Monday and 127-109 at he Washington Wizards Wednesday. The Nuggets are 6-2 straight up (SU) and 4-4 against the spread (ATS) in the last two weeks.
Cleveland has lost 3 of its last 4 games, which includes a 118-114 loss at home to the Sixers, pushing as 4-point home underdogs. The Cavs are 3-4 SU, but 4-2-1 ATS in the last 14 days.
The Cavs clobbered the Nuggets 99-87 in Cleveland Oct. 25, outscoring Denver in 3 of 4 quarters and outperforming it in all “four factors”.
Nuggets at Cavaliers odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:36 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Nuggets -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Cavaliers +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
- Against the spread: Nuggets -2.5 (-120) | Cavaliers +2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 224.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
Nuggets at Cavaliers key injuries
Nuggets
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
- PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
Cavaliers
- C Jarrett Allen (finger) out
- F Dean Wade (knee) out
[tipico]
Nuggets at Cavaliers odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 116, Cavaliers 110
Money line
BET the NUGGETS (-155) because these teams are much different compared to when they met earlier this season.
For instance, the Cavaliers were much healthier with an injured Allen and SG Collin Sexton both in the starting 5 and former backup PG Ricky Rubio was giving Cleveland good minutes before his season-ending injury.
On the other hand, the Nuggets are 12 games above .500 despite missing two key contributors because Nikola Jokic has increased his production and usage throughout the season.
Jokic has been even more dominant this season than last year when he won the MVP. He could really own the paint in this matchup since Cleveland is sans Allen and Mobley is still a rookie.
Furthermore, Denver’s win probability based on the money line is 60.8% and the Nuggets are 12-4 SU as road favorites while the Cavs are 3-9 SU as home underdogs.
The bottom line is the NUGGETS (-155) win this game more than 61% of the time.
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Against the spread
LEAN to the NUGGETS -2.5 (120) because they should win by margin, but I much prefer Denver’s money line (ML).
Also, the Nuggets are percolating and the Cavs are struggling. According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Denver has a plus-5.5 adjusted net rating (ranked 10th) the last two weeks while Cleveland has a minus-2.0 adjusted net rating (ranked 17th).
Denver’s ML is my favorite wager in this game but the NUGGETS -2.5 (-120) is the right side here.
Over/Under
PASS because I prefer the Over 224.5 (-115) since the first Nuggets-Cavaliers meeting went Under the total by 34.5 points.
But, a vast majority of the market is backing the Over, which has steamed the total up from a 221-point look-ahead line, according to Pregame.com.
Since we’d be getting the worst of the number and following the herd, I have no choice but to PASS.
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