Denny Hamlin’s outlook for the Round of 12 during 2023 NASCAR season

Evaluating Denny Hamlin’s chances of advancing out of the Round of 12 as he pursues his first NASCAR Cup Series championship.

[autotag]Denny Hamlin[/autotag] easily cruised to the Round of 12 due to stage points earned through the first two races and a victory at Bristol Motor Speedway in the Round of 16 finale. Hamlin advanced with finishes of 25th place at Darlington Raceway and second place at Kansas Speedway. A case could be made that the Joe Gibbs Racing driver could have won every event.

Hamlin is carrying significant momentum into the next round and could be labeled the championship favorite right now. So, how does the Round of 12 stack up for Hamln as he tries to claim his first NASCAR Cup Series title? Let’s take a look at what tracks are coming up over the next three races.

The driver of the No. 11 car will take a 21-point advantage to the playoff cut-line and head to Texas Motor Speedway, which has been up and down for him in the past. Hamlin’s best finish at the track in the last five races is ninth place with not many stage points. However, the Toyota entries should be fast so he could have a great opportunity to turn the ship around.

Moving on to Talladega, it represents a track that Hamlin has run well. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has five top-5 finishes in the last 10 races, including one victory in 2020. Over that period of time, Hamlin hasn’t done the best with stage points but his finishing positions matter the most. If he can replicate that in two weeks, he should be sitting in a good spot.

Finally, the Charlotte ROVAL is not one of Hamlin’s best tracks as he only has one career top-10 finish at the venue. Overall, the driver of the No. 11 car only has one top-10 finish on a road course this season despite having three poles. It truly depends on the type of car that Joe Gibbs Racing brings Hamlin because his statistics are all over the place.

The Round of 12 likely represents Hamlin’s most difficult challenge yet. The three tracks are not some of his best so with a 21-point advantage, finishing these events in the top-10 spots should be the goal. If Hamlin is eliminated in the NASCAR playoffs, it feels like this would be the time as the Round of 8 will better suit him overall.

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