Lamar Jackson has been dominant in just about every facet of offense. On throws from the pocket, he’s been one of the best in the league. On throws from outside the pocket, he’s been one of the best in the league. On play-action, he’s been one of the best in the league. On scrambles, he’s been one of the best in the league. On designed runs, he’s been … you guessed it: one of the best in the league.
Jackson has been good at everything, which is why he’s the leading candidate for MVP, but there is one split where the 22-year-old star is truly in a league of his own. That’s in empty formations, with no running backs in the backfield and five receiving options lined up out wide. After ringing up four touchdowns from empty formations against the Rams, Jackson is now averaging a ridiculous 0.73 expected points added per attempt from empty for the season, per Sports Info Solutions. That leads the league by a WIDE margin: Patrick Mahomes is second at 0.49.
No other quarterback has been that much better than their peers in any statistical split. The threat Jackson poses in empty is truly unique, which makes sense; he’s a truly unique player and his skill set is particularly dangerous in those empty formations.
Jackson has done most of his damage as a passer from those looks. He’s added “only” 7.7 of his total 58.9 EPA on runs from empty, but it’s the immense threat he poses on the ground that opens up the opportunities he’s taken advantage of in the passing game. When I took a look at the most common coverages teams use against empty last season, there was almost no variation from team-to-team: Everyone is either playing Cover 1 or Cover 3, which are both single-high safety coverages.
Well, you can’t play Cover 1 against Lamar, because you don’t want your coverage players to turn their backs to the pocket. That’s when this happens:
That’s why teams around the league have shied away from playing a lot of man against the Ravens this season.
Cover 3 is also hard to play because you need eyes on the pocket, and with only four defenders underneath, it’s easy for the Ravens to overload those zones. And even if the zone defenders manage to cover all of the receiving options, Lamar can still do this because there will always be an escape route against a four-man rush.
Well, what if you send a fifth rusher in an attempt to close off those escape routes? Now the free safety is put under a tremendous amount of stress if the Ravens send two receivers down the seam.
Ok, so single-high coverages aren’t a great option. How about Cover 2? It’s not much better. With an extra safety deep, the defense surrenders that safety down near the box is now susceptible to the quarterback draw.
And now instead of having two corners and a safety responsible for the deep zones, you now have two safeties and a linebacker covering those spots, which makes it easier to create a mismatch. That’s when the Ravens call their ‘5 Verticals’ concept.
So playing man coverage with safety help is a no go and all of these zone concepts are easily exploited … wait, I got it: How about we just send the house. Force him to get rid of the ball quickly and clog up all of those rush lanes! That should do the trick, right? RIGHT!?!?!?
Nope.
That’s not going to work either. That’s why the Ravens have all that speed in their receiving corps. Play Cover 0 and Jackson will find a matchup he likes and exploit it downfield.
Or in the red zone.
There are no obvious answers for stopping Lamar Jackson out of empty. That may sound like hyperbole, but that 0.73 EPA says otherwise. As does the fact that the greatest tactician in the history of the sport, Bill Belichick, had no answers for Jackson.
As good as Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson are, there isn’t a quarterback in the league who puts pressure on a defense quite like Lamar Jackson. The Ravens offensive scheme is founded on formations with multiple tight ends and backs in the backfield, but it’s at its most dangerous when it’s just Jackson back there. You know he’s going to beat you; it’s up to you how he does it.
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