On Tuesday, talented writer Jon Machota of The Athletic took a journey into the performances of the men with skins on the wall in new digs. Super-Bowl winning head coaches generally find work whenever their ride with that original franchise runs stale. After all, ascending to the mountaintop is difficult, so those who have been able to achieve it get a lot of credit for running the type of program that can navigate all of the hurdles.
That is definitely the case when it comes to the Dallas Cowboys and their hiring of Mike McCarthy. The words of owner Jerry Jones during the early days and weeks of the hiring indicate that McCarthy’s championship pedigree played a big role in his hiring. The Cowboys aren’t planning on waiting around long to see results, either, indicating there isn’t a rebuild but a reload underway. The Joneses want results, but can McCarthy deliver?
Machota went through the history books to track the success of former championship coaches who moved on to new teams and how they fared during their first season. The results were not very enthusiastic.
A total of 12 coaches have won Super Bowls and then later taken a job with a new team. Only one – Mike Holmgren in 1999 – reached the playoffs in his first season with a new club. The group combined to go 71-112-3. That’s an average of six wins per season.
Of course, the initial reaction from observers was whether or not the quality of the teams that were taken over were similar to what Dallas has. By most accounts, Dallas disappointed in 2019 by only reaching eight wins and had the talent to do much better than that. It wouldn’t be fair to predict results for them based on a bunch of teams that were in the doldrums when they grabbed a pedigreed winner to lead those franchises. We figured a deeper dive was in order.
The Field
I felt it necessary to widen the field a bit. Machota’s study did not include Joe Gibbs, who returned to coach the Washington Redskins for a second stint after being retired and setting up Joe Gibbs Racing. He also only included one follow-up stint for Bill Parcells. After leading the Giants to a Super Bowl he went on to coach the Patriots, Jets and Cowboys.
Each time he was hired because of his Super-Bowl winning pedigree, so each “first year” should be counted in the study.
We’ll circle back around on this in a second, but Parcells ability to rebuild a team is even more stark in the context of this study.
This rounds out Machota’s field from 12 to 15.
The Results
SB-Winning Coaches
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| Head Coach | New Team | New Record | Previous Record | Win Change |
| Vince Lombardi | 1969 Redskins | 7-5-2 | 5-9 | +3 |
| Don McCafferty | 1973 Lions | 6-7-1 | 8-5-1 | -2 |
| Hank Stram | 1976 Saints | 4-10 | 2-12 | +2 |
| Tom Flores | 1992 Seahawks | 2-14 | 7-9 | -5 |
| Bill Parcells | 1993 Patriots | 5-11 | 2-14 | +3 |
| Jimmy Johnson | 1996 Dolphins | 8-8 | 9-7 | -1 |
| Bill Parcells | 1997 Jets | 9-7 | 1-15 | +8 |
| Mike Ditka | 1997 Saints | 6-10 | 3-13 | +3 |
| George Seifert | 1999 Panthers | 8-8 | 4-12 | +4 |
| Mike Holmgren | 1999 Seahawks | 9-7 | 8-8 | +1 |
| Dick Vermeil | 2001 Chiefs | 6-10 | 7-9 | -1 |
| Bill Parcells | 2003 Cowboys | 10-6 | 5-11 | +5 |
| Joe Gibbs | 2004 Redskins | 6-10 | 5-11 | +1 |
| Mike Shanahan | 2010 Redskins | 6-10 | 4-12 | +2 |
| Jon Gruden | 2018 Raiders | 4-12 | 6-10 | -2 |
The Analysis
Parcells is amazing. At every place he’s gone, he’s had at least a three-win improvement over the previous season. Of course, he’s taken over some lowly programs. Regardless, this is what people are anticipating in Dallas from McCarthy, at least three more wins to get the Cowboys to an 11-5 record, minimum.
Realistic? Maybe, maybe not.
10 of the 15 “Year 1” coaching seasons with a new club, the teams improved on their record. That’s a significant finding that somewhat contradicts the theme of Machota’s piece.
Diving even deeper though, his findings get additional supporting weight.
For teams which were within two games of .500 when they fired their previous coach, six times under these parameters, things did not go well. At all.
The most recent iteration was when Jon Gruden took over the 6-10 Oakland Raiders. They stripped down in a rebuild, trading away their two best players in Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper, then struggled to a 4-12 record.
The 2001 Chiefs under Dick Vermeil fell from 7-9 to 6-10 after changing QBs from Elvis Grbac to Trent Green. Green was in his fifth year, two seasons removed from a devastating knee injury. The Chiefs would go 8-8 in 2002 and 13-3 in 2003.
Mike Holmgren’s 1999 Seahawks were the one middle-tier team to improve, going from 8-8 to 9-7.
Jimmy Johnson’s 1996 Dolphins and Don McCafferty’s 1973 Lions regressed a bit as well, losing one and two games off their previous year’s pace respectively.
The cautionary tale belongs to Tom Flores’ 1992 Seahawks. After finishing 7-9 with Dave Krieg at the helm for nine games in his final season in Seattle, the team fell apart, dropping five wins off the pace with an embarrassing mixture of Stan Gelbaugh and Kelly Stoufer under center.
The moral? The quarterback matters just as much as, and likely more than, the coach.
As long as Dak Prescott is in for training camp, expectations for a Cowboys ascent should still be the modus operandi.
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