While the flurry of free agency activity begins in the National Football League, teams are making other deals as the league year begins.
Bill O’Brien seems to be making some interesting deals as the trading market opens.
Emphasis on the interesting.
It began with a bit of a surprise. At first, it seemed that Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans agreed on a deal to send running back David Johnson to the Texans, according to Adam Schefter from ESPN:
Trade: Cardinals and Texans are agreeing to a trade that will send David Johnson to Houston, sources tell ESPN.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 16, 2020
Johnson grew into a true dual-threat running back during his time with the Arizona Cardinals. During the 2016 season he gained over 2,000 yards from scrimmage, carrying the football 293 times for 1,239 yards and 16 touchdowns, while also contributing 80 receptions for 879 yards and four touchdowns.
But Johnson suffered an injury in the 2017 season opener, and his dislocated wrist cost him the entire 2017 campaign. He returned to the lineup for the 2018 season, but came up short of his 2016 numbers. That year Johnson gained 940 yards rushing, and had 50 receptions for 446 yards.
The 2019 campaign was another down season for Johnson, his only year in Kliff Kingsbury’s offensive system. He appeared in 13 games with nine starts, and had 94 carries for 35 yards to go with 36 receptions for 370 yards.
But the teams were not done trading. Not by a long shot. Then came the real stunner:
Texans are trading DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 16, 2020
Monday began with Peter King reporting that there was at least the possibility that Hopkins would be traded this off-season. The rumor became reality, when the Texans and Cardinals agreed on a deal to send the extremely talented wide receiver to the Cardinals.
John McClain had the full details on the deal, which involved both players:
DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth round pick go to Cards for David Johnson and a second round pick this year and a fourth round pick next year.
— John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) March 16, 2020
Now to look at this through an optimistic set of glasses as a Houston fan, the Texans needed draft picks. Getting a second round pick from Arizona this season gives Houston picks at 40 and 57. In a very deep and talented wide receiver class, they could look to either package those two picks and move into the first round to get a receiver, or perhaps take advantage of a receiver falling to them at either spot. For example, in a recent mock draft by Benjamin Solak from The Draft Network, wide receivers such as Brandon Aiyuk, Justin Jefferson, Denzel Mims and K.J. Hamler were all available at that 40th selection. So perhaps – perhaps – O’Brien is looking at the big picture here and trying to get ahead of the curve. With Hopkins due $12.5 million this season, $13.5 million in 2021 and $13.915 million in 2022, perhaps O’Brien sees a chance to find his replacement on a cost-controlled basis this year.
That is the rosy picture.
The more bleak reading of this is that Arizona just really won this deal, and in other leagues the commissioner might step in to save O’Brien from himself.
Houston made another playoff run last season despite losing J.J. Watt for most of the regular season with a torn pectoral muscle, and with wide receiver Will Fuller in and out of the lineup with lingering hamstring issues. The Texans tried to shore up their offensive line, using a first-round pick on Tytus Howard, a second round pick on Max Scharping and trading away their first-round pick in this year’s draft for Laremy Tunsil. In addition, they entered free agency with $50.4 million in available salary cap space. They could have even increased that by working out extensions with Tunsil and Deshaun Watson. Instead? Instead they take on Johnson’s contract, trade away a premier wide receiver, and look to replace him via the draft.
As things stand right now, these are Watson’s weapons: Kenny Stills, Fuller (and his difficult injury history), tight end Darren Fells, and a room of running backs that includes Johnson, Duke Johnson, Lamar Miller and Carlos Hyde. Given this trade, and the fact that Miller and Hyde are free agents (and this trade) you can expect that both players are on their way out of Houston as well.
In other words, that is an offense that would love to have a player like DeAndre Hopkins available on the outside for the quarterback to find in the passing game.
Instead, Hopkins immediately becomes Kyler Murray’s best friend. Even better from Arizona’s perspective? They can now use the eighth-overall selection on their offensive line, or even on another wide receiver. Imagine if Murray has Christian Kirk, Hopkins and a CeeDee Lamb to throw to next year?
Now look. It is every easy to just sit back and crush a trade. Reading through Twitter right now, you can come away with the idea that this is the worst trade in years. The problem, from a Houston perspective, is that such a sentiment seems like the right reading of this move. In a vacuum, this deal seems crazy from Houston’s point of view.
Over the rest of free agency, and via the draft, O’Brien will have a chance to improve upon this. With the extra second round pick he has some flexibility to move around the draft board, or he could stay pat and still address the wide receiver position in a very deep class.
But I am reminded of a scene from “Family Guy,” when lovable buffoon Peter Griffin is enticed by a slick salesman and forced to choose between the sure thing (a boat) or a mystery box. Griffin’s response to his wife? “A boat is a boat but a box could be anything. It could even be a boat!”
Right now it looks like O’Brien picked the box.