The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-2) host the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (2-2) Tuesday for Game 5 of their Western Conference semifinals playoff series. Tip-off at Footprint Center is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Suns Game 5 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Dallas evened the series with a 111-101 Game 4 victory Sunday despite Phoenix shooting better from the field, grabbing more rebounds and throwing more assists. Three-point shooting was the difference in Game 4 as the Mavs outshot the Suns 45.5-36.0% from behind the arc and sunk 11 more threes.
Phoenix All-Star PG Chris Paul struggled while the series was in Dallas, averaging just 8.5 points with 5.5 assists and 4.5 turnovers and he fouled out of Game 4. Mavs All-Star PG Luka Doncic has been the best player in this series, scoring 33.0 points with 9.3 rebounds and 8.8 assists.
Mavericks at Suns odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:07 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mavericks +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Suns -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-112) | Suns -6.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Mavericks at Suns key injuries
Mavericks
- None
Suns
- None
[tipico]
Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions
Prediction
Suns 110, Mavericks 106
Money line
PASS with a lean to the Mavericks (+220) because I like Dallas’s spread and typically will sprinkle on an underdog’s ML when betting them to cover.
However, the Suns averaged 125.0 points in the first 2 games of this series while in Phoenix and they are outperforming the Mavs in three of the “four factors” for the series.
Phoenix’s adjusted series price is -250 even though this series is tied 2-2 and the Suns’ most likely path to a series victory is to win both of their remaining home games (Game 5 and 7).
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Against the spread
BET the MAVERICKS +6.5 (-112) because they have the best player in this series and Dallas is shooting 40.5% on 3-pointers and is making 16.5 threes per game through the first 4 games. I don’t trust the Suns to win by margin with the Mavs shooting this well from behind the arc.
The Mavs also have committed 18 fewer turnovers in the series and have a better assist-to-turnover ratio than the Suns. By winning the turnover battle, Luka and Dallas can control the tempo, which is the best way to beat a CP3-led team.
More than 80% of the cash is on Phoenix, according to Tipico Sportsbook, and it’s generally profitable to fade such lopsided betting markets in major sporting events.
BET the MAVERICKS +6.5 (-112).
Over/Under
PASS because both teams like to play half-court basketball but each team is shooting better than 40.0% from 3-point land and the combined offensive efficiency in this series is through the roof.
Plus this Mavericks-Suns series is playing nearly 3 possessions per 48 minutes slower (92.9) than the playoff average (95.8).
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