The Dallas Mavericks (45-28) play the Minnesota Timberwolves (42-32) Friday for the second time this week. Tip-off at the Target Center is set for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Timberwolves odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
The Mavericks held off the T-Wolves Monday in a 110-108 win in Dallas as 1-point home favorites. Dallas is 2-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) versus Minnesota this season.
In the last two weeks, the Mavs are 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS with the latest being a 110-91 home win versus the Houston Rockets Wednesday without Luka Doncic.
Following a 4-game winning streak, Minnesota has lost back-to-back outings to the Mavs Monday and the Phoenix Suns Wednesday (125-116). But, the T-Wolves are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games.
Mavericks at Timberwolves odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:38 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mavericks +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Timberwolves -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +3.5 (-108) | Timberwolves -3.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 228.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mavericks at Timberwolves key injuries
Mavericks
- None
Timberwolves
- C Karl-Anthony Towns (forearm) questionable
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Mavericks at Timberwolves odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 113, Timberwolves 109
Money line
According to both Pregame.com and VegasInsider.com, a vast majority of the action is on the Timberwolves (-160).
I’m assuming this is based on the public seeing Minnesota lose by 2 points to the MAVERICKS (+130) in Dallas earlier this week and figure the T-Wolves won’t lose a second straight to the Mavs, this time at home.
But, that’s what will happen. Dallas played with their food against Minnesota and should have comfortably won that game. The Mavs were up as many as 16 points versus the T-Wolves Monday and held a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter.
Also, this is a bad matchup for Minnesota since it feasts on forcing turnovers and crashing the glass. However, Dallas has one of the best offensive turnover and defensive rebounding rates in the Association.
I’ll SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+130) only because Dallas’s spread is the much sharper play.
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Against the spread
Definitely BET the MAVERICKS +3.5 (-108) heavier than or instead of their ML based on the previous analysis and as a fade against a market that’s barrelling into the T-Wolves -3.5 (-112).
The bottom line is the market has lazy analysis of this matchup and just figures Dallas cannot beat Minnesota twice in the same week. But the Mavs have a better winning percentage, adjusted net rating and ATS margin versus top-10 teams than the T-Wolves, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Furthermore, Dallas is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 road games, 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings with Minnesota and 11-6 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record.
The MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 228.5 (-110) because Dallas is 13-21 O/U versus teams with a winning record, the Mavs are 9-11 O/U as road underdogs and the T-Wolves are 10-14 O/U as home favorites.
Also, Dallas plays at the slowest pace in the NBA so if they control the tempo there should be fewer possessions.
But, I’m not as confident in the Under as I am about Dallas and the Over has cashed in five of the past six Mavericks-Timberwolves meetings.
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