The Dallas Mavericks (42-29) drop by Target Center Sunday to play the Minnesota Timberwolves (22-49) in each team’s regular-season finale. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Mavericks-Timberwolves odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Dallas can clinch the 5-seed with a victory against a Minnesota team it has beaten five straight times while going 4-1 against the spread in those games.
The Mavs are trending up entering the postseason as they’ve won back-to-back games, six of seven and eight of their last 10 (6-4 ATS).
The T-Wolves have taken back-to-back double-digit losses against the Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets. They’ve lost five of their last seven games while going 2-5 ATS. Minnesota is eliminated from postseason contention.
Mavericks at Timberwolves: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mavericks -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | Timberwolves +225 (bet $100 to win $225)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mavericks -7 (-110) | Timberwolves +7 (-110)
- Over/Under: 230.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mavericks at Timberwolves: Key injuries
Mavericks
- PF Maxi Kleber (Achilles) doubtful
- SG JJ Redick (heel) out
Timberwolves
- None.
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Mavericks at Timberwolves: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Timberwolves 121, Mavericks 115
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Timberwolves (+225) since I “like” Minnesota plus the points and question Dallas’ motivation to win this game.
What’s the Mavs’ incentive for winning? To play the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round? Dallas probably isn’t ducking anyone, but the Mavs could certainly be looking ahead to the postseason.
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Against the spread (ATS)
A lot of people think the T-Wolves should be in “tank mode” but they’ve instead opted to see what the future looks like with PG D’Angelo Russell, No. 1 overall pick Anthony Edwards and C Karl-Anthony Towns. When they’ve been on the floor together, the T-Wolves are playing well.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Minnesota has a plus-5.2 points per 100 possessions differential with those guys on the floor. The ‘Wolves are also in the 98th percentile of lineups in offensive efficiency and 97th percentile of effective field-goal shooting.
Minnesota has been playing harder than pundits want to admit and I’ll BET the TIMBERWOLVES +7 (-110) and their young core play the Mavs tough in the regular-season finale.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 230.5 (-110) for a half unit because the Over has cashed in four of the last five Mavericks-Timberwolves meetings and in Dallas’ past four.
Also, the T-Wolves have one of the worst defenses in the league and I don’t see the Mavs getting after it defensively.
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