The 4-seed Los Angeles Clippers host the 5-seed Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series Saturday at Staples Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Mavericks-Clippers odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
This is a rematch of last postseason’s Western Conference first-round meeting that the Clippers won 4-2 with both teams’ stars going off.
L.A.’s Kawhi Leonard averaged 32.8 points per game on 63.9% true shooting (.538/.294/.855), 10.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game with a plus-20 net rating.
Dallas’ Luka Doncic was incredible in his first-ever postseason, averaging 31.0 points per game on 59.6% true shooting (.500/.364/.656), 9.8 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game.
The Mavs won and covered two of their three regular-season meetings with the Clippers and Dallas’s 51-point beatdown vs. a Kawhi-less L.A. team on Dec. 27 was one of the most lopsided victories in the NBA this season.
Mavericks at Clippers: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mavericks +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Clippers -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mavericks +6 (-110) | Clippers -6 (-110)
- Over/Under: 217.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Mavericks at Clippers: Key injuries
Mavericks
- PF Maxi Kleber (Achilles’) probable
- SG J.J. Redick (heel) out
Clippers
- Nothing affecting gambling odds.
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Mavericks at Clippers: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Clippers 117, Mavericks 113
Money line (ML)
PASS even though I expect L.A. to win because Dallas took the series six games last postseason when the Clippers were an even bigger series favorite (-630), according to SportsOddsHistory.com.
In fact, the Mavs were leading second-half of Game 1 last year before Kristaps Porzingis was controversially ejected after picking up his second technical foul.
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Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the MAVERICKS +6 (-110) for a half unit because we are seeing “reverse line movement” in the betting market, Dallas plays better against top-10 offenses—which both teams have—and the Clippers underperform vs. bad defenses.
For instance, according to pregame.com, 60% of the money wagered has been on the Clippers’ to cover, but oddsmakers have made L.A. cheaper. It’s generally a red flag when the House knocks point(s) off the more popular side.
Also, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, L.A. is 10-13 overall with a minus-0.6 points per 100 possessions vs. teams in the top-10 of offensive efficiency and a minus-3.3-points ATS margin (ranked 24th).
However, Dallas is 13-10 with the second-highest points per 100 possessions differential (plus-4.8 points) vs. teams in the top-10 of offensive efficiency and the best ATS margin (plus-5.9 points).
Finally, the Mavs have the 22nd-ranked defensive efficiency (CleaningTheGlass.com), but the Clippers are ranked 28th in ATS margin (minus-2.5 points) vs. teams in the bottom-10 of the league in defensive efficiency.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 217.5 (-115) for a half unit because all the steam on the Under is giving us the best of the number, and the Clippers have turned more into an offensive team under first-year head coach Ty Lue.
The market has bet the Mavericks-Clippers total down from the 223-point opener to the current number, and my inkling is to fade that kind of line movement.
Also, my read is that since the Clippers are the best 3-point shooting team in the Association, they are more willing to sag on defense and be goaded into a shootout.
I’m sure most Clippers fans are hoping to see the perimeter defense they envisioned when acquiring Kawhi, Paul George and Patrick Beverley, but L.A. hasn’t been that lock-down on defense since last season.
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