The Indiana Pacers (11-16) host the Dallas Mavericks (12-12) Friday at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Pacers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Dallas snapped a three-game losing skid Wednesday, winning 104-96 over the Memphis Grizzlies as 1.5-point road underdogs. Over the past two weeks, the Mavs are 2-5 straight-up (SU), 2-5 ATS and 2-5 O/U with the 19th-best non-garbage time efficiency differential, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Indiana has won back-to-back games over the Washington Wizards Monday and the New York Knicks Wednesday following a four-game losing streak. The Pacers are 3-4 SU, 3-3-1 ATS and 6-1 O/U with the 12th-best non-garbage time efficiency differential (CtG) in the last two weeks.
These teams split last season’s regular-season series 1-1 with the road team winning and covering both games and either side of the total cashing in each.
Also, Pacers first-year head coach Rick Carlisle is facing his former squad after spending 13 seasons on the Dallas sideline from 2008-21.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA December 10 breakdown
Mavericks at Pacers odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mavericks +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Pacers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +1.5 (-107) | Pacers -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Mavericks at Pacers key injuries
Mavericks
- Nothing affecting the gambling odds.
Pacers
- Nothing affecting the gambling odds.
Mavericks at Pacers odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Pacers 112, Mavericks 107
Money line
BET PACERS (-125) because they have more ways to score than the Mavericks (+102). Indiana’s head coach is obviously familiar with Dallas’s strengths and weaknesses, and Pacers’ PG Malcolm Brogdon could make life difficult for Luka Doncic.
For instance, Luka has the highest usage rate in the Association, but Brogdon held Luka to just 13 points on 33.3% shooting in their lone head-to-head meeting last season.
Furthermore, Brogdon has the size that will make it hard for Luka to post him up, and Brogdon has the lateral quickness to stay in front of Luka.
More importantly, Indiana’s net efficiency is far better than Dallas’s despite its losing record. The Pacers also have by far the worst win differential in the NBA at minus-4.7, which essentially means Indiana has five fewer wins than it should.
Against the spread
PASS since Indiana’s money line is only 10 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Pacers -1.5 (-115).
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 213.5 (-108) for a small wager because Dallas has one of the more potent pick-and-roll offenses in the league while Indiana struggles to defend the pick-and-roll. Also, the Pacers have the fourth-best offensive efficiency and 10th-best effective field goal shooting this month.
On top of that, both teams have the same roster makeup as last season, but the totals for the two Mavericks-Pacers meetings were 221 and 224.5. I project this game’s combined score to approach 220.
That said, what’s holding me back from betting the Over heavier is that Indiana ranks 19th in pace and Dallas 25th. Fewer possessions generally mean fewer points unless both sides have a hot shooting night.
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