Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders odds, picks and predictions

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The Washington Commanders (7-4) host the Dallas Cowboys (3-7) on Sunday in Week 12. Kickoff from Northwest Stadium is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Cowboys vs. Commanders odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

Dan Quinn faces his old team for the first time as Commanders head coach. Given the Cowboys’ collapse this season, the defensive guru must be ecstatic to have left his old team behind. Washington has lost back-to-back games to Pennsylvania teams (28-27 to the Pittsburgh Steelers, and a 26-18 defeat versus the Philadelphia Eagles on Week 11 Thursday Night Football), but this feels like a get-right spot.

Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels, a favorite to win NFL Rookie of the Year, is denied a marquee showdown with Dak Prescott (hamstring), who’s out for the rest of the Cowboys’ lost season. However, the Commanders probably enjoy seeing this matchup on the schedule as they look to cement a playoff berth in the coming weeks.

Dallas, meanwhile, was thumped by the Houston Texans 34-10 on the previous edition of Monday Night Football.

Jerry Jones’ club is in a tailspin both on and off the field as they’re likely already looking to the 2025 season. While they still boast plenty of talented skill players, they line up as a pushover in most future matchups.

The lines have virtually stayed the same compared to our First Look on Monday, with small nudges on the moneyline — which frankly should be greater, given the Cowboys’ grim outlook and injury report.

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Cowboys at Commanders odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated at 12:02 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Cowboys +450 (bet $100 to win $450) | Commanders -600 (bet $600 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Cowboys +10.5 (-110) | Commanders -10.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 45 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Cowboys at Commanders key injuries

Cowboys

WR Brandin Cooks (hamstring) questionable
CB Trevon Diggs (groin, knee) questionable
TE Jake Ferguson (concussion) out
G Zach Martin (ankle, shoulder) doubtful
G Tyler Smith (ankle, knee) questionable

Commanders

CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) out
K Austin Seibert (hip) questionable

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Cowboys at Commanders picks and predictions

Prediction

Commanders 31, Cowboys 13

Moneyline

Cowboys vs. Commanders betting fans will likely have trouble finding a book that offers Washington a tantalizing price on the moneyline.

Those backing Washington should find other ways to maximize value, including the spread and player props.

PASS.

Against the spread

Trends don’t always the whole story. However, this ending should pay off.

Washington ranks seventh at 7-3-1 ATS and sits tied for a league-best 4-1 mark at home.

Dallas has limped ATS this year at 2-8; the market is again mispricing this number, putting too much emphasis on the intradivisional matchup and erroneously thinking Dallas will keep this one close.

QB Cooper Rush isn’t the worst Plan B, but don’t expect him to solve Quinn’s defense — despite whatever flaws this boom-or-bust unit carries. A Cowboys offensive line without Martin and possibly Smith would leave a major interior hole that Washington’s front 7 will exploit on the regular.

Bettors should pounce if they can still nab juice better than (-110) when giving the points, even if it’s a few points more than this. This bet looks great up to -13.5.

BET COMMANDERS -10.5 (-110).

Over/Under

The Over would be a more readily acceptable bet if the Cowboys would have a convincing offense that would allow them to hold up their end of the bargain.

Washington could come close to accomplishing this on its own, as my score prediction says, but the Under properly prices Dallas’ (in)ability to score.

BET UNDER 45 (-110).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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