The Dallas Cowboys (7-2) visit the Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) Sunday for their Week 11 meeting at Arrowhead Stadium with the kickoff scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Cowboys vs. Chiefs odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
After a bumpy few weeks earlier this season, K.C. has rattled off three consecutive victories but only covered in two of those games. The Chiefs are 3-7 ATS and 5-5 O/U with the eighth-toughest schedule, according to Football Outsiders.
Dallas recovered from a no-show in its 30-16 Week 10 home loss to the Denver Broncos to pummel the Atlanta Falcons 43-3 last Sunday. The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS and 5-4 O/U with Football Outsiders’ 14th-toughest schedule.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NFL Week 11 picks and predictions
Cowboys at Chiefs odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 8:00 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cowboys +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Chiefs -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Cowboys +2.5 (-103) | Chiefs -2.5 (-117)
- Over/Under (O/U): 56.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Cowboys at Chiefs key injuries
Dolphins
- WR Amari Cooper (health and safety protocols) out
- LT Tyron Smith (ankle) questionable
- DE DeMarcus Lawrence (foot) IR-out
- DE Randy Gregory (calf) IR-out
Chiefs
- RT Lucas Niang (ribs) out
- CB L’Jarius Sneed (knee) questionable
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Cowboys at Chiefs odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Chiefs 30, Cowboys 24
Money line
The CHIEFS (-140) is too good of a price to pass up. K.C. has the better coach and quarterback and is the home team.
Even better, nearly 70% of the action is the Cowboys, according to Pregame.com. So, not only do we get the defending AFC champions at an awesome price, but we also get to fade the public with said team.
Granted, everyone expected K.C.’s record and performance to be a lot stronger at this point in the season. But, the Chiefs are still atop the AFC West standings with a much easier schedule remaining.
More importantly, the Chiefs still have the best offense in the NFL. K.C. offense is ranked first in success rate and is the only team with a third-down conversion rate north of 50.0%.
Also, I’m skeptical of Dallas’s fourth-place defensive DVOA ranking by Football Outsiders. Maybe the Cowboys have performed that well, but I don’t think that production is sustainable. Especially since Dallas is missing both starting pass rushers for the near future.
BET 1 unit on the CHIEFS (-140).
Against the spread
PASS since K.C.’s money line is only 23 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Chiefs -2.5 (-117). I’m confident enough in K.C. winning this game outright to spend a little extra on the money line.
However, when’s the last time the Chiefs have laid fewer than 3 points at home? This has to be the cheapest K.C. has been since the $500 million dollar man, Patrick Mahomes, took the reins of the offense.
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 56.5 (-110) for a tiny wager if at all because I prefer K.C.’s money line more so than the total in this game.
That said, there is some value in fading a market that’s betting the Over at nearly a 90% clip. Typically, it’s profitable one-sided markets in sports betting.
Also, these teams are known for their prolific offenses but have a combined 10-9 O/U record. The bottom line is oddsmakers are dialed in to how these teams play and have priced their totals accurately. I doubt nine of 10 bettors taking the Over in Cowboys-Chiefs know something the sportsbooks don’t.
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