Predicting what the Cowboys offense will like in 2023 has become a national pastime this offseason. With the departure of Kellen Moore, change on offense is inevitable. In Year 4 with the Cowboys, Mike McCarthy has promised a more hands-on approach where he’ll be the man calling the plays.
In today’s NFL, certain wrinkles and strategies can add net gains over time. As discussed in previous articles, motion is a cheat-code in today’s NFL that adds expected points added (EPA) to plays. It lures the defense’s attention to other areas and creates more open space to attack. In the same way, play-action can be a nitrous boost to a game plan, increasing the EPA output and squeezing extra juice from the downfield passing game.
Dak Prescott was especially efficient with play-action in 2022, logging a higher passing rating, big time throw percentage, average distance of target, touchdown to interception ratio and overall time to throw compared to his standard non-play-action numbers (per PFF tracking).
Dak Prescott’s play-action rate in 2022 was the second highest of his career (27.2 per PFF). When using it he improved his passer rating, big time throw % & ADoT while reducing his rate of turnover worthy passes. pic.twitter.com/OCPEuRsQYP
— Reid D Hanson (@ReidDHanson) July 13, 2023
Adding a run fake to a play works because it sucks defenders in (if only for a fraction of a second) and creates separation for receivers to get open, catch the ball, and collect yards after the catch.
Anyone who found Prescott’s interception numbers last season troubling should be happy to hear his rate of throwing turnover-worthy passes from play-action, decline (even though those balls are typically farther downfield).