So this year several of our nation’s governors will not let us spend Thanksgiving with our families due to the continued presence of Covid-19. We can take this as a negative, or we can use it as a positive in that we don’t have to explain our degenerate habits to our more frugal relatives. Plus, we won’t have to hold our tongue as our relatives prattle on about politics and what they think about the pandemic. Better yet, we won’t have to fight our brothers for the drumstick or the last of the candied yams. Of course, best of all, it means we can really devote Thursday morning to setting DFS lineups instead of driving over the river and through the woods.
Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions
Deshaun Watson looked hungry Sunday taking down the Boston Baked Bean appetizer. Thursday he gets to feast on all of the fixings on the Covid-approved buffet table known as the Lions secondary. Watson gets not only the best defensive-against advantage, but he is also the best overall QB on this slate from an offensive standpoint as well. This means that he is the easy QB1 on the day. Matthew Stafford’s matchup isn’t awful either. What will hurt him is his sore thumb, combined with the high likelihood that Kenny Golladay and D’Andre Swift will miss another game. If they both are cleared to play, bump Stafford up to QB2 here, otherwise, he is no better than QB3.
Duke Johnson has received a lead back’s share of touches while David Johnson has been out, but he hasn’t done much with them. This is despite facing two bottom-third run defenses. This will be his best matchup yet, I like him as RB4 here and a great FLEX play. Detroit’s RBs did nothing against the rotten Panthers’ run defense on Sunday. That is hardly a glowing recommendation despite heading into a matchup with an equally rotten Texans’ run defense. If Swift can play, he is the easy RB3 on the slate. If not Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson will be no more than FLEX-Worthy and RB5/6 territory. The exception would be if two of the threesome misses the game, then perhaps the remaining one would have more value.
Brandin Cooks has outperformed Will Fuller recently, but that has been due more to elite coverage on Fuller, than gameplan. Both should eat against Detroit. XFL-escapee, P.J. Walker handly fed three WRs on Sunday, so even Randall Cobb is in play at WR3 range. Still, you need to start one of Cooks or Fuller as WR2. Keke Coutee scored last week, but I wouldn’t use him as anything more than a dice roll in Showdown format. Kenny Golladay’s presence will determine the value of the Detroit passing attack against a so-so Houston secondary. If he plays, he gets WR2 consideration. If not, Marvin Jones gets some WR3 consideration and Marvin Hall could be a deep punt play at WR3 or FLEX. I just don’t trust this offense to create enough opportunities for all three of them at the same time. Danny Amendola missed last week’s game with a hip injury, if he can go, he is always in consideration as a Stafford safety valve. If Amendola is out Jamal Agnew is a deep sleeper since Houston has allowed a couple of decent games to opposing slot WRs, so I’d definitely consider him at WR3 or FLEX. Quintez Cephus hasn’t seen the usage in this iteration of Kenny Golladay’s injury that he did earlier this year. He is Showdown slate worthy at best.
Jordan Akins just posted 5-86 against a Patriots’ defense that had allowed just under 360 yards to the position all season. Meanwhile, Detroit has been on a downward spiral against the position for the last five games. He would get a higher rating this week if he didn’t split touches with TD-dependent Darren Fells. I like both of them but will likely have more exposure to Logan Thomas at this price range. The Texans started the season struggling to cover TEs, but they have stepped it up the last couple of weeks. T.J. Hockenson is the most talented TE on the entire slate, but his value here will be determined by whether or not Kenny Golladay plays. Hockenson should be considered the TE1 here either way. Avoid the Detroit defense, and only use Houston’s if you cannot afford Washington or one of the late game Defenses.
Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys
One of these teams will be in first place after this week. However, whatever happens, both of these teams will still be under .500 after this week. Alex Smith is doing just enough to get excited about his possibilities week-to-week. Still, he hasn’t put together the “full game” yet. This game presents a strong opportunity for him, but I still cannot trust him as more than QB2 on the slate. As for Andy Dalton, he looked competent against a mediocre Vikings’ pass defense, but Washington is borderline elite against the pass. Especially in the pass rush category, where they will rush Dalton into making dumb mistakes. He will be my lowest ranked QB on the day.
Two weeks ago the matchup said to play J.D. McKissic and he balled out. Last week, it said play Gibson, and he had a huge day. Even after facing Dalvin Cook, Dallas still ranks #1 against pass-catching backs in yards allowed. They also rank second-worst against RBs in yards allowed on the ground. This means it is a Gibson week, not a McKissic week. McKIssic may still have FLEX value, but Gibson is overall RB1 on this slate and a must-start. Ezekiel Elliott had a bit of a resurgence last week against Minnesota and since it is easier to run than pass against Washington, he gets to be no worse than RB3 here. Personally, I’d play both of them and use Duke Johnson at FLEX. Unless of course if D’Andre Swift plays. Tony Pollard is a great play in Showdown formats, but he is nothing more than a dart throw in regular tourneys.
Last week I called big games for Smith and Terry McLaurin. The game wasn’t as big as I had hoped, but it was still Terry’s seventh game with more than 80 receiving yards. WR1s have scored at least once in four straight against Dallas, including McLaurin back in Week 7. He is the WR1 on this slate and should be locked into your lineup. Cam Sims scored three weeks ago when Steve Sims wasn’t fully healthy. Since then Steve has been working as the real fourth option in this passing attack. Steve Sims can be used as a punt WR3, but ignore Cam. Andy Dalton was able to unlock Michael Gallup last week, it still didn’t produce any sizeable figures despite a great matchup. He is best left on benches for most weeks. Amari Cooper had the best performance in Week 11 among the Cowboys’ wide receivers. Washington has given up a few WR1 touchdowns this year, so he isn’t out of WR2 consideration. I just feel that the other options are safer. CeeDee Lamb made a ridiculous catch last week, but he did nothing in the earlier meeting between these two teams. Slot WRs, as a whole, have done nothing all year against this defense. It won’t start this week. You can ignore him. I give Cedrick Wilson higher odds of a score than Lamb this week.
Logan Thomas has been one of the best TEs in the league over the last month. This included a 4-60-1 performance against these Cowboys. His numbers have stayed fairly buoyant with the QB change, and outside of T.J. Hockenson, he has the second-most overall talent at the position on this slate. At a cheaper price than either of them, he will be my favorite play of the week at the position. Meanwhile, only six TEs have more targets this season than Dalton Schultz. Washington started the year struggling against opposing TEs, but over their last four games, they have been pretty stalwart. This included holding Schultz in check back in Week 7. Based on the price, I will have some exposure to him. That said, I don’t really trust him here. Washington is the best defense option on the docket. I don’t trust Dallas this week at all.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
– This game, unfortunately, has been moved to Sunday due to COVID concerns so we only have a two-game slate for Thursday.
Here are my recommended lineups.
At DK: $7.4K for Deshaun Watson, $12.8K for Ezekiel Elliott and Antonio Gibson, $7K for Terry McLaurin, $5.7K for Amari Cooper, $5.3K for Brandin Cooks, $2.9K for Jordan Akins, $5.7K for Duke Johnson at FLEX, and $2.7K for the Texans’ defense.
At FD: $8.7K for Watson, $15.3K for Zeke and Gibson, $7.9K for McLaurin, $6K for Marvin Jones, $6.5K for Cooks, $5K for Logan Thomas. $6.1K for Duke at FLEX, and $3.9K for the Texans’ defense.
At Fanball (featuring SuperFlex): Watson, Alex Smith at SF, Gibson, and Zeke at RB, Duke at FLEX, McLaurin, Cooks, and Cooper at WR, and T.J. Hockenson at TE.
Quarterback
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | $7,400 | $8,700 |
| Matthew Stafford | $5,800 | $7,200 |
| Andy Dalton | $5,600 | $6,800 |
| Alex Smith | $5,400 | $6,700 |
Weekly strategy – There are three possible plays on this slate. I love Deshaun Watson, but he will be the most owned. Matthew Stafford (especially if Kenny Golladay returns) is also a consideration. Alex Smith is the cheap option to roll with, but his ceiling isn’t as high as I’d wish.
Pay to Play:
Deshaun Watson, Texans @ DET ($7400 DK, $8700 FD)
Deshaun Watson is the safest play on this slate and it also turns out that he is the most expensive. Detroit is better against the pass than the run, but that isn’t saying much. This is still the team that allowed Mitchell Trubisky to throw for three TDs. Watson will score a pair through the air and one on the ground.
Stay Away:
Andy Dalton, Cowboys vs. WFT ($5600 DK, $6800 FD) Washington is the only decent pass defense playing on Thursday. Thus Dalton gets the easy pass.
Value Play:
Alex Smith, Football Team @ DAL ($5400 DK, $6700 FD)
I’d feel so much better about starting Smith if he would throw for a few more TDs. The yardage has been there but the scores have not. Plus, he has been facing some pretty bad defenses in his three primary performances. The Dallas defense is also pretty bad, especially against the pass. In their earlier meeting, Kyle Allen finished with 194-2. We can argue about whether Allen is better than Smith, but Smith isn’t decidedly better or worse than him. This means that he should finish with a floor of 200-2.
Running Back
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | $6,800 | $8,500 |
| D’Andre Swift | $6,500 | $7,200 |
| Antonio Gibson | $6,000 | $6,800 |
| Duke Johnson | $5,700 | $6,100 |
| J.D. McKissic | $5,100 | $5,600 |
| Adrian Peterson | $4,700 | $5,400 |
| Kerryon Johnson | $4,300 | $4,900 |
Weekly strategy Antonio Gibson is the only must-start on this group. I’d also suggest Ezekiel Elliott since he has a huge upside and since you can afford it. If D’Andre Swift plays I’d consider pivoting off of Zeke. You can also consider him for FLEX. Of course, Duke Johnson may be the easiest FLEX play. If you get cute and decide to not play Gibson, you should at least use J.D. McKissic.
Pay to Play:
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys vs. WAS ($6800 DK, $8500 FD)
Washington is much tougher against the pass than the run. Andy Dalton will be under constant pressure and his best options will be quick passes to Ezekiel Elliott (and Tony Pollard) and Dalton Schultz. Elliott had his best game of the season last week against a much weaker Minnesota defense. It won’t be as smooth of sailing this time, but you have the money to spend so you might as well buy the highest-priced option. It is Thanksgiving and Zeke likes to get fed.
Stay Away:
Kerryon Johnson, Lions vs. HOU ($4300 DK, $4900 FD)
The best Kerryon Johnson can hope for this week is no D’Andre Swift. Even then he will have to split touches with Adrian Peterson. The matchup isn’t bad, but there are better options to spend on.
Value Play:
J.D. McKissic, Football Team @ DAL ($5100 DK, $5600 FD)
When seeking short slate value, always consider pass-catching backs. Dallas is better against them than they are against ground gainers, but J.D. McKissic does a little bit of both.
Wide Receiver
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | $7,000 | $7,900 |
| Will Fuller | $6,400 | $7,400 |
| Kenny Golladay | $6,000 | $7,000 |
| Amari Cooper | $5,700 | $6,900 |
| Marvin Jones | $5,500 | $6,000 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $5,400 | $6,200 |
| Brandin Cooks | $5,300 | $6,500 |
| Marvin Hall | $3,900 | $5,100 |
| Danny Amendola | $3,700 | $5,200 |
| Michael Gallup | $3,500 | $5,500 |
| Keke Coutee | $3,400 | $4,500 |
| Cam Sims | $3,300 | $4,800 |
| Steven Sims | $3,200 | $4,600 |
| Quintez Cephus | $3,100 | $4,900 |
| Jamal Agnew | $3,000 | $4,800 |
Weekly strategy – Give me Terry McLaurin all day long. He needs to be your WR1. Will Fuller could be a pivot WR1, but I prefer to get my exposure to that game with Brandin Cooks at WR2 for less money. If Kenny Golladay is healthy enough to play you can also consider him at WR2. Assuming that Golladay doesn’t play, both Marvin Hall and Marvin Jones are in play at WR3. Danny Amendola is also questionable for this game. The matchup is awesome for him if he can play. If not, Jamal Agnew could be a very sneaky WR3 assuming the Amendola slot role. Otherwise, I will likely use one of the other Detroit or Houston WRs in the three-hole.
Pay to Play:
Terry McLaurin, Football Team @ DAL ($7000 DK, $7900 FD)
You get to start the most talented receiver on the board against the worst defense on the board against the pass. This is the easiest decision that I’ve ever had to make. Terry McLaurin is even priced reasonably. Set it and Forget it.
Stay Away:
Michael Gallup, Cowboys vs. WFT ($3500 DK, $5500 FD) Michael Gallup has vanished from the Cowboys’ playbook since the injury to Dak Prescott. This is not the best matchup, to begin with, but if I’m going to use a Cowboys’ WR it will be Amari Cooper or CeeDee Lamb.
Value Play:
Marvin Hall, Lions vs. HOU ($3900 DK, $5100 FD)
If (as expected) Kenny Golladay misses this game, Marvin Hall will remain in the starting lineup this week. Detroit will be playing from behind, so they will have to throw the ball a lot. Hall has the confidence of his QB, something I cannot say for certain about Quintez Cephus. So I expect Hall to continue to be peppered with targets. The exception would be if Danny Amendola returns, as he would then receive the largest share of targets outside of Marvin Jones.
Tight End
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | $4,700 | $6,000 |
| Dalton Schultz | $3,800 | $5,300 |
| Logan Thomas | $3,500 | $5,000 |
| Jordan Akins | $2,900 | $5,200 |
| Darren Fells | $2,700 | $4,900 |
Weekly strategy – For me, it is T.J. Hockenson, Logan Thomas, or Jordan Akins this week. That said, there really isn’t a TE that I’d completely ignore.
Pay to Play:
T.J. Hockenson, Lions vs. HOU ($4700 DK, $6000 FD)
T.J. Hockenson has produced 50 yards and/or a TD in every game this season. Meanwhile, Houston has improved against the TE position in recent weeks after starting the year abhorrently against the position.
Stay Away:
Darren Fells, Texans @ DET ($2700 DK, $4900 FD)
Yes Darren Fells is still around and he remains a goal-line threat, but he clearly fell behind Jordan Akins with his return last week. There are better safer cheap options if you don’t want to pay up.
Value Play:
Logan Thomas, Football Team @ DAL ($3500 DK, $5000 FD)
Logan Thomas has been a sleeper favorite of the Dominator for the last few weeks. He continues to be one of the key targets of Washington, even after the QB change. Kyle Allen found Thomas for 4-60-1 in the earlier meeting, and I like him to score again here. It helps that Dallas has looked bad against every reasonable TE they have faced.