Third downs are crucial in the NFL. They’re often the difference between extending a drive or change of possession. Teams that finish with the better conversion rate gain an advantage in expected points and win probability.
Third-down conversion rate isn’t always enough to make up for other variables, like turnover differential,b but it’s impactful nonetheless and something the Cowboys have consistently been efficient with in recent seasons.
A popular topic of conversation this offseason has centered on Dak Prescott and his league-leading 15 interceptions thrown in 2022. As Dan Orlovsky recently pointed out, 11 of the 15 interceptions came when Dallas needed 10+ yards and eight came on 3rd-and-long.
Despite the high interception total on third downs, the Cowboys are coming out on top. Not only are they escaping with a net positive in expected points, but they are converting their third downs at a top-five rate.
The Cowboys have consistently been among the elite in 3rd down conversion rate. Minus Dak's injured season, they've been top-10
2019: 47.06% (2nd)
2021: 42.98% (10th)
2022: 45.17% (5th)
The question now is – how will McCarthy now calling plays impact that…— Reid D Hanson (@ReidDHanson) June 17, 2023
While no one wants to see those high interception numbers continue, the positives far outweigh the negatives.
Prescott’s 0.250 EPA (expected points added) on third downs ranked eighth in the NFL in 2022 (which includes his INTs). And his 51.5 percent success rate ranked fourth in the NFL. Based on that it’s safe to say the Cowboys have done quite well on third downs.
Although it’s important to keep in mind, Prescott is the main reason why Dallas has been successful. When filtering for at least 50 attempts, Cooper Rush finished last season dead last (39th) in third down EPA/play at -0.382. Similarly he was dead last in SR with a paltry 28.8 percent.
The takeaway here is the Cowboys have been extremely successful on third downs and that success is more likely tied to Prescott than the play-caller.
Where the play-caller could have an impact is in early down play-calling that lead up to the third down situations. If McCarthy calls more or less early down runs, Prescott is going to inevitably step into different third down situations in 2023.
By the numbers, third downs are still generally an advantage to the defense, so the best third down, is a third down avoided.
Luckily, the Cowboys are fortunate to have one of the best third-down QBs on the planet and have been consistently winning the high-stakes nature of third downs.
It will be interesting to see if and to what degree third downs change in 2023 with Kellen Moore gone.
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